100 days of uncertainty

Daily update

US President Trump is to mark their 100th day in office with a partial retreat on auto-part trade taxes, and a speech. The speech risks further erratic policy pronouncements—Trump declared very negative approval ratings to be “fake news”, but may want to blame external forces for their poll performance. That might lead to policy pronouncements on immigration, trade, or some other economically significant issue. Uncertainty about such policy shifts has economic consequences.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney is expected to remain in government after yesterday’s elections, although it is not clear whether the Liberals will have an absolute majority in parliament. Carney marked the victory with some politely hostile comments aimed at the US administration.
Spanish 1Q GDP and preliminary April consumer price data are due, if there is enough electricity. The Iberian power blackout offers some short-term economic disruption to future data. The UK BRC shop price index was broadly in line with expectations, although food price increases have attracted some attention.
US March wholesale and retail inventories are due. These reflect the before times, but will be closely watched for evidence of stockpiling ahead of the aggressive trade tax increases. The more inventory was built up before tariffs, the longer the economic damage of tariffs can be delayed.