Daily update
Daily update
- There is a lot of central bank speak today. European Central Bank President Lagarde will of course be offering comments. However ECB officials have given the impression that the ECB will follow the lead of the Federal Reserve. That, and a rather dangerous focus on data dependency, reduces the impact of ECB officials’ public pronouncements.
- Bank of England Chief Economist Pill might be more important to markets. The Bank has suggested that rates could be cut before inflation hits 2%—an economically sensible strategy, but one which other central banks have been less explicit about. This adds interest to the question of when the UK lowers interest rates.
- There are a couple of sentiment polls. The UK’s CBI distributive trades survey measures retail sector sentiment. Recent retail sales data showed consumer resilience, hinting that economic activity data may be revised stronger. The US offers the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. This is more entertainment than useful information, with the comments section a regular reminder that survey respondents are often biased and angry.
- Former US President Trump won the South Carolina primary. Markets are unlikely to care about the result, although the fact opinion polls exaggerated the final margin of victory is something investors might wish to note.