Rate cuts are coming?

Daily update

The Bank of England offers some excitement as investors await the start of the UK interest rate easing cycle. That start is probably not today, but should be soon. The BoE relishes dissent and discussion to help form higher quality decisions (the Federal Reserve might like to take note), making policy outcomes less predictable. With consumer price inflation down nine percentage points from the recent highs, the case for lowering real interest rates is strong—but the BoE might want a couple more data points before acting.
The Swiss National Bank also is deciding about rates, and opinion is split on whether it will ease. The Swiss were obviously at the start of the “follow inflation lower” policy moves, and inflation is two percentage points below its peak—but has not slowed much recently.
German producer prices remain in deflation, falling more than consensus expectations. However, only nine economists form the consensus, no two economists agreed with each other, and some weird forecasts skewed the average—all reminders of the problems of any kind of survey.
US initial jobless claims have been rising recently, and unlike other labor market data these represent facts rather than survey evidence. The Philly Fed sentiment poll, on the other hand, is just a survey.