Daily update
Daily update
- Today’s calendar is so quiet even ECB President Lagarde is not speaking (former US Treasury Secretary Summers might be speaking, but that is just background noise at this stage).
- US Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment poll is a rare data release today. The headline number is not worth much attention. The comments section is of interest. The comments offer pure entertainment value, and the tone of the comments is a reminder that in sentiment surveys the balance between objective answers and bias often tilts towards bias.
- There has been a further increase in tensions in the Middle East. Three US soldiers were killed in a drone attack in Jordan; the US administration is blaming Iranian-backed militants. Separately, an oil tanker was struck by a missile. Oil prices have risen slightly. However, energy prices are not at levels to threaten price inflation or growth deflation.
- Markets have time to consider Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting (and press conference). The idea that inflation is higher than reported persists amongst some consumers, but this is not translating into accelerated wage growth (wage growth decelerated last year). The fact inflation fell without a rise in unemployment raises questions about how much credit the Fed can take for lower inflation.