Daily update
Daily update
- A pre-recorded television interview with Federal Reserve Chair Powell was broadcast over the weekend. Powell’s public remarks have a scarcity value that certain other central bank leaders might learn from. The value of the content of Powell’s remarks is, perhaps, more questionable. Powell focused on what his colleagues were thinking—no March rate cut, three cuts this year. Powell added that a weaker economy might mean more rate cuts, a stronger economy fewer rate cuts.
- German December trade data showed falling exports and imports. The weaker exports are part of a complex pattern of trade—demand for goods has continued to soften, and politics and relative cost shifts are altering various economies’ market shares. The import weakness comes before Houthi attacks on shipping.
- Assorted sentiment indicators are due. The US ISM services poll is likely to get more attention—not because it is more accurate than other surveys (it is not) but because there is more near-term uncertainty about where Federal Reserve policy might be heading.
- The OECD’s interim Economic Outlook is published. As with the recent IMF forecasts, this generates media noise and political point scoring but adds little to investors’ stock of knowledge. OECD economists have no peculiar insights, and such reports can be outdated.