Daily update
Daily update
- A container ship has been struck by a missile in the Gulf of Aden, without sustaining serious damage. The economics of the threat to shipping remain muted. There are still ships sailing through the Red Sea. European gas prices are at the lowest level since last August, so concerns about energy prices should be limited. The additional nine days it takes to ship cargo around the Cape of Good Hope is unlikely to result in shortages, and shipping costs are a tiny part of the price consumers pay for goods.
- The UK continues not to publish its labor force survey, as the data is not sufficiently reliable (other countries have fewer qualms about publishing unreliable data). The experimental numbers show stable unemployment and slowing average earnings growth. That implies no price stickiness arising from labor cost pressures.
- The ECB November inflation expectations survey is due. Consumers sadly lack the training of professional economists, and in consequence are not very good in predicting inflation. However, markets are focused on policy responses rather than economic reality, and policy makers may react to the spin of an expectations survey.
- Germany and the US have business sentiment polls due, which will add noise but little useful information.