Lagarde speaks. This is not unusual.

Daily update

ECB President Lagarde speaks. This is not an especially rare occurrence. In one of last week’s multitude of speeches, Lagarde took time to brand economists a “tribal clique”. Today’s remarks come after the ECB decides on policy, so could generate a flicker of interest. ECB colleagues have periodically had to “clarify” some of the president’s remarks, but assuming that is not necessary this time vague signals of a summer easing seem likely.
The US offers its first guess at fourth quarter GDP. The rate of growth is likely to have slowed as the economy moves towards a soft landing. However, the data might under-report economic activity (at a time of structural change, new ways of generating economic activity are often missed).
US GDP details should show the core personal consumer expenditure deflator growing at 2%. That suggests that the mentality of an “inflation problem” should be retired (unless you are in Florida, where there is an inflation problem). However, this is too political a topic to disappear entirely.
The German ifo business sentiment index is due, following from a rash of sentiment polls yesterday. Media stories about issues in the Red Sea may have influenced responses.