Daily update
Daily update
- US fourth quarter GDP data is revised today. This does give us a slightly less ill-informed picture of economic activity at the end of last year, but it is still likely to miss quite a lot that is going on in the economy. Economies are changing faster than statisticians, and things like home working and self-employment are challenges—to say nothing of recording the economic value of the latest TikTok meme. Early GDP numbers are inclined to underreport activity, although today’s data is unlikely to correct all of that underreporting.
- The US economy is likely to slow in 2024. While middle-income consumers are still consuming, there are consequences to Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s relentless “hike, hike, hike” interest rate policy, and fiscal policy will act as a drag too.
- European consumer and business sentiment indicators are scheduled. Sentiment is inclined to be pessimistic as it tends to be influenced by an ever more sensationalist news cycle (nothing “slows” any more, it can only “plunge” or “crash”).
- US retail inventories data is not market moving, but might reflect a conflict for retailers. Memories of supply disruption argue for higher inventory levels, but concerns about profit margins as consumers rebel against price hikes may push for inventory cost discipline.