From deluge to desert

Daily update

The calendar is quiet. The recent pattern of data deluge then data desert is unhelpful. In an increasingly complex world, overworked economists need time to examine the details of numbers to judge if they are reliable. Gaps in the calendar allow markets to speculate on irrelevant topics.
In the UK, after arguably the worst real wage growth since the Napoleonic wars, BoE member Mann was expressing concern that real wages had turned positive. ECB speakers continue to resist the idea of an early rate cut (but markets have limited conviction that the ECB could manage to make a timely decision).
US consumer price inflation is revised—especially exciting for economists who wrote a book on inflation. (Widely available. Ideal Valentine’s Day gift). However, revisions mainly change seasonal adjustment patterns, and seasonal adjustment by definition distorts economic reality. These revisions do not change US consumers’ past inflation experience.
UK Chancellor Hunt wants pension funds to invest in UK assets. The 2022 debacle after the Truss budget saw UK pension fund asset values drop almost a quarter. That challenges the value of government investment advice, and is a warning to other countries that ignoring economists and pursuing ideological fiscal policies is not necessarily a winning strategy.