Daily update
Daily update
- Japan offered a timely reminder of the unreliability of economic data. Fourth quarter GDP was revised from -0.4% to +0.4%. Admittedly, this is an annualized number, which sensationalizes and exaggerates changes, but it is still a notable revision. The revision was mainly due to stronger investment spending—Japanese consumer spending was revised somewhat weaker.
- China’s consumer price inflation rate turned positive in February, but its producer price data remained negative. The positive consumer price move is due to the floating timing of the lunar new year holiday, and is unlikely to establish a trend. China’s exports improved, with exports to the US turning positive on a seasonally-adjusted basis (they are not nearly so positive without the statistical adjustment). US data suggests imports from China fell in year-over-year terms from September 2022 until the latest data in January 2024.
- Portugal’s far-right Cheba party increased its vote at the weekend’s general election. The center-right bloc has the largest number of seats. Extreme political parties are expected to do well in the summer’s European parliamentary elections—times of economic upheaval encourage scapegoat economics and prejudice politics.
- The calendar is quite quiet today. The New York Fed’s survey of inflation expectations is due, but this contains little useful economic information.