Daily update

  • The Bank of England’s rate decision is due. Unlike some other central banks, the BoE has a tradition of dissent and disagreement. Arguably this produces better quality decisions (that is only true if the BoE agrees with my view and cuts rates). Disinflation forces argue that the bank should lower rates to prevent unnecessary real policy tightening, which would be a relief for the minority of households with a mortgage.
  • The Federal Reserve has been late to cut rates, and it is delaying things even more. Despite disinflation forces, and strong deflation in some sectors, there was no rate cut yesterday. Fed Chair Powell did signal a September rate cut, but that is of limited comfort to lower income households struggling to service their debt burdens.
  • US unit labor cost and productivity data are due. These numbers matter in theory, but are not much use in real time. There have been productivity gains from increased investment and flexible working (which are evident at a corporate level). However, economic productivity is derived from GDP, and if GDP is under-reporting activity (as it probably is) it will tend to under-report productivity.
  • There are assorted sentiment polls from European and US manufacturing, subject as ever to the distortions of a more polarized political climate.

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