Daily update

  • Japan’s April consumer price inflation was a little dull—the inflation rate slowed more or less as expected, as food prices offered disinflation. Some sources of inflation are probably not domestic in origin—although the rate has moderated, hotel price inflation remains close to 20% y/y. Very strong foreign tourist numbers helped push up those prices.
  • US Michigan consumer confidence data is just noise, but it is always entertaining to check in on the political polarization represented by the gulf between Democrat and Republican views. Michigan inflation expectations do not necessarily reflect how consumers actually perceive inflation, given the overlay of partisan bias. US durable goods orders data is also due.
  • Headline German first quarter GDP was unrevised, but there were some changes in the details. Past consumer activity was revised stronger. While not reaching the hedonism of the US consumer (who can?), Germans are prepared to spend.
  • As the current UK prime minister’s announcement of a general election demonstrated, the UK occasionally experiences light rainfall. There was 55% more rain than usual in April, and consumers refused to go outside to spend, dampening retail sales. Online retail did better, but if people are staying at home in sweatpants watching Netflix, they are less inclined to spend in any form.

Explore more CIO Daily Updates