Daily update
Daily update
- US consumer price inflation was largely as expected, but the detail shows a narrower number of prices that are contributing to inflation. Excluding shelter the figure remains below 2% inflation, and durable goods had their fifteenth consecutive month of deflation. Economists exclude items from the headline not to fiddle the figures, but to better understand disinflationary forces. Food price inflation slows (though most prices are not falling, and chocolate and vending machine inflation is still high). This may be politically relevant in impacting inflation perceptions.
- US President Biden and former US President Trump have both received enough delegates to win their respective party’s nominations as presidential candidates. Markets are absolutely not going to be surprised. Markets are also unlikely to start pricing political scenarios until later this year, perhaps not until after the part conventions.
- EU and UK industrial production are due. Neither are especially market moving. The European data is scooped by national statistics, and the UK is widely regarded as a service sector economy.
- German February wholesale prices are not a top-tier data release, but markets have an interest in any price information these days. The numbers have been in deflation since the second quarter of last year.