Zurich/Basel, 29 April 2015 – In March, the registration of new cars climbed 24% compared to the month before when adjusted for seasonal effects. New car registrations in the first quarter were up 6% on last year. The increase is particularly remarkable since the carbon tax on automobile sales increased at the start of the year.

In March, retailer sentiment became even gloomier. The index that assesses the business situation dropped from -3 to -13 points. Retailers have not been this pessimistic since the end of 2011, another period when the franc appreciated significantly. In spite of the strong franc, domestic tourism remains surprisingly healthy. Hotel stays by Swiss residents rose nearly 5% year on year in the first two months of the year.

Sources: Seco, UBS

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of about three months on the official figures. At roughly 60%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from five consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index, all of this data is available monthly.

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Media contacts

Bernd Aumann, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 88 71, bernd.aumann@ubs.com

Sibille Duss, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

 

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views