The demise of the corporate headquarters is transforming where, why and how we work and is set to drive a major reshaping of human geography over the coming decade.
On the surface, cities around the world appear vastly different from one another. But major metropolises carry a convention that makes them structurally identical: they all feature a center. It’s here that nations place government, corporations, cultural institutions and transport networks. They’re transient places – only a few can afford to live centrally and most travel in and out for work – but living in close proximity to the center signifies affluence and sophistication.
A working population in the city center is the imperative that has driven advanced and emerging economies since the industrial revolution. But what happens when people no longer come here? In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, office blocks and government buildings are running a reduced staff. Meanwhile, museums, galleries, theaters and restaurants in the cosmopolitan center are off-limits. The Big Remote represents an unprecedented experiment in human geography where urban centers fall dormant and leaders explore the potential of a workforce and consumer population that are distributed rather than centralized.
From urbanization to community hubs
In 2013, Google’s luminary engineer Marissa Mayer was handed the top job at ailing tech behemoth Yahoo! Once in charge, Mayer decreed that working from home would be banned. The business community was divided on the move – some viewed it as an authoritative first step while others were aghast at her unprogressive (un-Googly, even) approach to leadership.
Working from home has been a hot topic since WiFi and laptops first allowed employees to decamp to their kitchen tables and a company’s policy here demonstrated how much (or little) the top brass trusted their staff. The arrival of Covid-19 has meant that some leaders have been forced to change their minds. In some cases, the evidence has helped. In the US, the National Bureau of Economic Research reports that employees spend 48.5 minutes more at their desk each day when working at home. Globally, 74% of chief finance officers intend to shift some employees permanently to more remote work, according to Gartner.
The prospect of a long-term shift to home working isn’t good news for everyone, however. Since lockdown measures began, those who rely on the presence of workers in the center – such as sandwich shops and newsagents – have shut.
Property developers, estate agents and co-working spaces are hoping the trend will reverse once a vaccine is rolled out. But right now, the numbers don’t offer much encouragement: real estate advisory group JLL reports a contraction in leased office space in major cities in the second quarter of 2020 – 59% in London, 66% in New York and 77% in Tokyo, compared with the same period last year. Employers and governments are also encouraging more home working; Germany’s labour ministry is writing a law that would give workers a statutory right to work from home.
With all that once lured people to urban centers evaporating seemingly overnight, a global movement away from cities is taking shape. In the UK, 32% of people are more interested in living in a rural area now than they were before the pandemic, according to a study from Totaljobs. In the US, a Harris Poll reveals that 39% are considering a move to less populated areas – and findings are similar in most advanced economies.
But this nascent reversal of urbanization won’t look like the past. Expect new rural and suburban hubs that are community-based and a far cry from the anonymity and social isolation sometimes experienced in cities. Accenture, a professional services firm, confirms that four in five people in the UK now feel more or as connected to their communities as they did before the virus and 88% expect these new associations to remain after the virus is contained.
‘Community is making a comeback in a big way, and this will continue as we see the rise of working near home, as well as working from home,’ says Annie Auerbach, co-founder of cultural insights agency Starling. ‘Today, co-working spaces like WeWork occupy central city locations, but we’ll see the rise of community hubs that are multi-functional, offering, for example, spaces for art projects and support to the elderly, as well as a mobile workforce.’
Key implications
Key implications
- Watch the divide: as The Big Remote gathers pace, expect a divergence in outlook between those who are ready to adapt to this new shift and those who long for a return to the age of the central business district.
- The new center: architects, urban planners and technologists will be responsible for recreating the urban center in its new, sparsely populated form. The city will become greener, smarter and more navigable.
- Return to community: villages and towns in rural areas will benefit from a boost in young wealthy professionals and a surge in fresh new ideas.
