Highlights 2019

The 25th Reserve Management Seminar was held in Thun, Switzerland, welcoming 54 participants as well as 33 external and UBS speakers. Over the years it has developed into one of the leading events addressing areas of asset allocation as well as (geo)- political and economic trends.

Watch the video from last year's conference and find out what you missed.

Daily wrap-up

Find out more about insights and key take-aways from the 24th Reserve Management Seminar on UBS Neo.

Axel A. Weber, UBS Chairman of the Board shares his views on the current economic cycle, normalizing monetary policy and the flexibility of national banks to react to a potential crisis.

On-site voting results

Wonder what other participants thought? You can find the answers to the panel questions from RMS 2019 below.

Results of a survey at a UBS event. Results are not representative.

Plenary session

25 Years of FX reserve Management - Max Castelli (Head of Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS Asset Management)

Will the diversification trend of FX reserve management continue?

Is the asset allocation of central banks too conservative?

Should the investment governance framework of central banks be upgraded to include a sustainability objective?

Global economic and financial outlook

Max Castelli (Head of Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS Asset Management)

Will the US impose tariffs  on all Chinese goods?

Which central bank is likely to add further monetary accommodation first?

What is the absolute floor for interest rates?

Will US interest rates go negative at some point over the next 5 years?

Are elevated asset prices an important contraint on interest rate normalization?

Which of the following will be the best/worst performing asset classes over the next 5 years (in absolute terms)?

Political Session

Current geopolitical landscape & pressure points - Matt Cowley (UBS Knowledge Network, UBS Investment Bank)

The wave of populism around the world is:

The dispute between the US and China is:

Panel Discussion

US and Europe – Economic Outlook- Matt Cowley (UBS Knowledge Network, UBS Investment Bank)

What has changed? The Federal Reserve and the ECB:

Why Sovereign Institutions are embracing sustainability

Max Castelli (Head of Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS Asset Management)

Does climate risk impact financial and monetary stability policies of central banks?

Should central banks revise their mandate to incorporate climate risk?

Do you invest in green bonds?

Brexit: where next?

Dean Turner (CIO Investment Office United Kingdom, UBS Wealth Management)

Do you think the UK will (ever) leave the EU?

Does heightened political volatility make the UK less investable?

Will the UK be the last country to leave the EU?

RMB and Chinese fixed income assets in central bank portfolios

By when do you think the RMB will reach a share of 10 per cent in global FX reserves?

Should RMB fixed income be a separate allocation from EM Debt?

If you allocate into China bond markets, will the cash come from

Market and Financial Outlook

Max Castelli (Head of Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS Asset Management)

What will be the yield on the US 10-year Treasury in one year time?

What will be the average annual return of US stocks over the next 5 years?

Gold panel

The future role of Gold for central banks – Moderated by Philipp Salman (Strategy and Advice, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS Asset Management)

Where do you expect gold prices to trade next year?

What is your institution’s plan for the investment of gold reserves in the next 12 months?

How do you purchase gold? (please choose all that apply)

In addition to capital preservation, liquidity, diversification and lack of default risk what factors are driving your institution’s plan to increase gold reserves in the next 12 months? (please choose all that apply)

Augmenting investment professionals through AI

Marco Spinelli (Global Product Manager, UBS Investment Bank)

How strong the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be in economic/market forecasting activities in 5-10 years?