Macro Monthly Time to trade the growth slowdown
We are optimistic the US economy will avoid a recession in the next year, but market pricing of recession risk is likely to increase
Highlights
Highlights
- We are optimistic that the US economy is strong enough to weather headwinds and avoid a recession in the next 12 months.
- However, market pricing of recession risk is likely to increase over the next few months.
- Equity valuations are still expensive relative to bonds. Moreover, we believe that signs of a durable bottom in economic growth or a Fed pivot to a less hawkish stance are unlikely in the near term.
- Should global economic momentum accelerate against our expectations, we feel that Chinese equities are an attractive way to express this view.
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