Evan Brown Lucas Kawa


  • We are optimistic that the US economy is strong enough to weather headwinds and avoid a recession in the next 12 months.
  • However, market pricing of recession risk is likely to increase over the next few months.
  • Equity valuations are still expensive relative to bonds. Moreover, we believe that signs of a durable bottom in economic growth or a Fed pivot to a less hawkish stance are unlikely in the near term.
  • Should global economic momentum accelerate against our expectations, we feel that Chinese equities are an attractive way to express this view.


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