UBS consumption indicator: Solid private consumption in 2018

Zurich, 27 Dezember 2017 – The consumption indicator fell slightly in November, to 1.67 from 1.68 points. Values from previous months were revised upward by a significant margin in response to surprisingly strong summertime growth in overnight stays. New car registrations gained 1.3% in November, slightly below the average established in previous months.

Looking ahead to 2018, UBS Chief Investment Office Wealth Management expects consumption to grow 1.3%. Solid economic growth and moderately rising employment should continue to support private consumption. Rising inflation has, however, adversely affected real wage growth and, by extension, private consumption growth. Moreover, third-quarter employment growth still remains below the long-term average of 1.1%, only reaching 0.5%.

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

UBS Switzerland AG

Media contact

Sibille Duss, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views

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