Zurich/Basel, 29 July 2015 – The minor improvement in the prospects for Swiss private consumption in June stems mainly from an increase in the number of new car registrations. It rose by around a fifth, both year on year and month on month. Car buyers tend to prefer powerful cars; the average horsepower output of a new car in Switzerland is 25% higher than in Europe.

This sharp increase in registrations contrasts starkly with the gloomy outlook for business activities in the retail sector. Real revenues have fallen 1.6% year on year since the start of 2015, and the effects are still being felt. The index published by the Swiss Economic Institute KOF at ETH Zurich fell month on month from -10 to -13 points, reflecting the gloomy expectations in retail.

Sources: Seco, UBS

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.


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Studer Dominik, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 81 74, dominik.studer@ubs.com

 

Bernd Aumann, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 88 71, bernd.aumann@ubs.com

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views


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