The UBS Consumption Indicator rose from 1.45 to 1.53 points in February, indicating consistent, solid growth in private consumption. New car registrations remained high, but retailer sentiment was rather subdued.


Zurich, 30 March 2016 – The UBS Consumption Indicator rose on the back of continued strong demand for automobiles, which increased 1.2% year on year in February. The number of new car registrations surpassed the high figure for February 2015, when importers discounted prices after the EURCHF exchange rate floor was abandoned. Retailer sentiment, by contrast, declined again slightly in February; the KOF survey dropped to -11 index points (from -8 index points in January).

Several data series used to calculate the UBS Consumption Indicator were revised by their publishers in February, and the indicator's readings of the last few quarters were updated accordingly. Retroactive changes were made to historical observations of gross domestic product (GDP), private consumption, retail business conditions, employment in Switzerland and the number of overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals.

Sources: Seco, UBS

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.


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Media contact

Dominik Studer, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Tel. +41-44-234 81 74, dominik.studer@ubs.com

Sibille Duss, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Tel. +41-44-235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

Alessandro Bee, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Tel. +41-44-234 88 71, alessandro.bee@ubs.com

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views


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