Zurich, 24 February 2016 – January's rise in the UBS Consumption Indicator was supported by somewhat improved business sentiment in the retail sector, which nudged up to -10 index points (previous month: -12). Nevertheless, the outlook for retail remains subdued. January also saw a significant increase in new car registrations, which climbed 10% year-on-year. Declining oil prices increased real consumer income, giving a boost to consumption.

The improvement of the UBS Consumption Indicator sends a positive signal for private consumption. However, unemployment could rise in the first half of the year as a delayed response to last year's weaker GDP growth, thereby dampening private consumption. The UBS Chief Investment Office expects the job market to recover in the second half, which could lead to an increase in private consumption of 1.4% for 2016.

Sources: Seco, UBS

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

 

UBS Switzerland AG


Media contact

Dominik Studer, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 81 74, dominik.studer@ubs.com

Sibille Duss, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

Alessandro Bee, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Tel. +41-44-234 88 71, alessandro.bee@ubs.com

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views

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