Will the US Federal Reserve rate cut provide market 'insurance'
After the US Fed's 25-basis point rate cut, the question for investors is whether this is an insurance rate cut as in 1995 or 1998 or a pre-recession rate cut, and how does the risk of US-China trade war escalation change the picture.
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The Quarterly Investment Forum (QIF) is an ongoing cross-investment team discussion and debate about the most relevant active risks in major markets and across asset classes and funds.
Each QIF is a mix of 'top down' and 'bottom up' perspectives, beginning with a 'top down' discussion of the major macroeconomic themes identified by the Asset Allocation Team. Each quarter, a rotating roster of portfolio managers present a 'bottom up' view of major active risks in their portfolios.
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3Q 2019 Quarterly Investment Forum highlights
Global risk factors in the investment landscape
A discussion of how the Fed rate cut will impact markets, and the global risks we are watching.
The Fed rate cut – a recessionary signal?
How markets react to the Fed rate cut in coming months will be an important signal.
The bull case for fixed income
The Fed rate cut should support growth and higher inflation.
Macroeconomic outlook
Evan Brown, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 25 basis points on 31 July. The question for investors is whether this is an insurance rate cut similar to Fed easing in 1995 or 1998 versus a pre-recession rate cut as happened during the Global Financial Crisis.
Fixed income: Bull vs. bear debate
Scott Dolan, Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income
Jonathan Gregory, Head of Fixed Income UK and Senior Portfolio Manager
The bull case for fixed income foresees a long period of low interest rates, while demand for fixed income investment remains strong, but what if the Fed refocuses its monetary regime away from targeting 2% inflation?
Trade war discussion
Geoffrey Wong, Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific Equities
Hayden Briscoe, Head of Fixed Income, Asia Pacific
The path of trade negotiations between the US and China, and other countries, remains hard to predict. We take a number of perspectives to triangulate on possible outcomes.
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