Moving light streaks in front of New York City skyline
Go for gold icon

We expect gold to build on its gains in 2025. Lower interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks, and strong dollar-diversification trends likely see investor and central bank buying continue. Outside gold, we also see long-term opportunities in copper and other transition metals, with demand increasing alongside higher investment into power generation, storage, and electric transport.

Further upside for gold

Gold reached new record highs, with the price topping USD 2,790/oz—a year-to-date gain of 35% to 30 October 2024. Since Election Day, the metal has faced modest setbacks, as investors have focused on the decisive nature of Trump’s victory and the potential benefits of Trump’s policies on US stocks.

We expect the de-dollarization trend among central banks and private asset managers to continue. We estimate central banks bought around 900 metric tons of gold in 2024, and we think these volumes can be sustained well above the prior decade’s average of around 325 metric tons a year. Additionally, we see other traditional drivers of gold like lower real interest rates, fading dollar strength, and rising geopolitical uncertainties reasserting themselves in the year ahead.

We think prices could rise to new highs in 2025, underpinned by a step higher in exchange-traded funds inflows; the third quarter saw the strongest net inflows in a quarter since 1Q22.

The infographic shows the amount of gold purchased by world central banks in metric tons. It compares the yearly average over the past decade and the estimate for the current year, 325 and 900 metric tons respectively. Source: The data is sourced from IMF, World Gold Council, as of November 2024.

More in metals

Industrial metals have faced headwinds in recent months, as weak economic data from China and fears of a cutback in US climate-related spending have outweighed concerns about longer-term supply shortages. However, in 2025, we believe tightening fundamentals will again support metal prices as the global energy transition continues and the number of new mining projects disappoints. For example, we see copper prices reaching a near-record USD 11,000 per metric ton by end-2025. We also see opportunities in more niche minerals like manganese, rare earths, and lithium. Owing to the complexities of attaining direct exposure, we prefer buying select miners and processors that have exposure to these metals.

Oil: Higher prices on supply disappointments

Consensus expects the oil market to be oversupplied next year. But we think that current low prices could lead to lower supply growth than expected in the US. Also, OPEC+ is likely to be cautious about increasing supply if the market cannot handle it, and renewed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could affect supply.

Meanwhile, solid economic growth, global interest rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus measures should moderately increase oil demand. With financial positioning in oil currently low, we expect moderately higher crude oil prices in 2025 and favor yield-generating strategies that take on the risk that the oil price will not fall below a certain level.

Watch the video

Gold has had an incredible year – its shine brightened by ongoing demand from central banks and geopolitical tensions. But can the forces that propelled gold to new heights keep it shining bright in 2025? UBS GWM CIO APAC Head of Investment Advisory & Content Wayne Gordon discusses investing in gold in the coming year.

More investment ideas

Spinning carousel

Position for lower rates

Top investment ideas

We expect central banks to cut interest rates further in the year ahead, reducing cash returns. We believe investment grade bonds offer attractive yields and expect mid-single-digit returns in US dollar terms. Diversified fixed income strategies and equity income strategies can also help investors sustain portfolio income.

Moving lights in front of a building

More to go in stocks

Top investment ideas

After strong years for equities in 2023 and 2024, we see further upside in 2025. We expect the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by the end of 2025, around 10% higher than today’s levels. Tariffs could contribute to volatility in European and Chinese markets. But we see value in maintaining diversified exposure to Asia ex-Japan. In Europe, we like small- and mid-cap stocks and Swiss high-quality dividend payers.

Moving lights

Transformational innovation opportunities

Top investment ideas

We expect significant and sustained profit growth in the transformational innovation opportunities of (1) Artificial intelligence and (2) Power and resources. By investing in these areas, we believe investors can earn strong long-term returns.

Moving lights on road

Sell further dollar strength

Top investment ideas

While the US dollar may stay well bid in the near term, we believe its valuation may now be overstretched. We recommend investors use periods of strength to reduce US dollar exposure through strategies such as hedging dollar assets, switching USD cash and fixed income exposure to other currencies, and through options.

Moving train in city

Time for real estate

Top investment ideas

We think the outlook for global residential and commercial real estate investments is bright. With declining and constrained supply paired with rising demand, we see opportunities in sectors including logistics, data centers, and multifamily housing. Investors should focus on strategic acquisitions and diversification to capitalize on these favorable market dynamics.

Explore more of the Year Ahead 2025 report

In our base case, we expect sustained economic growth in the US, supported by healthy consumption, loose fiscal policy, and lower interest rates. Tariff threats are a headwind for Asia and Europe. If imposed, they could be partially offset by reactive stimulus measures in China. We expect growth in Europe to modestly improve as interest rates fall

A Trump presidency, coupled with Republican control of Congress, has the potential to reshape the global economic and geopolitical landscape. Key policy areas in focus for investors include tariffs, fiscal policy, deregulation, monetary policy, and international relations.

The 5Ds—debt, deglobalization, demographics, decarbonization, and digitalization—will be significant forces in the decade ahead that present opportunities and risks for investors. In aggregate, we expect them to lead to higher growth and periods of higher inflation over the long term.

Since the beginning of the decade, cash returns have struggled to surpass inflation and bonds have faced headwinds from rising interest rates. In contrast, equities have thrived, and private markets and commodities have offered robust returns. Looking ahead, we expect equities and private markets to continue to offer the highest potential returns.

Entering 2025, we believe stocks still have more to go, with our base case expectations of growth (despite tariffs), lower interest rates, and AI advancements. In fixed income, we think there is an opportunity to lock in yields for quality bonds. In currencies, while the dollar may remain strong in the short term, we believe it is looking stretched and advocate for selling it at further strength. We also like gold as a diversifier. Finally, we think the global real estate outlook looks promising.

Taking a step back, while these investment ideas present compelling cases for immediate action, developing a strategic plan that links goals with strategies can improve investors’ chance of success and help them stay focused on the bigger picture amid potential market turbulence.

We aim to provide the direction of travel for the economy and asset classes against a wide range of market outcomes ahead. The upside scenario would see lower taxes, deregulation, and trade deals adding to a positive market narrative built on solid growth and continued investment in artificial intelligence, while the risk scenario is that trade tariffs, excessive fiscal deficits, and geopolitical strife will contrib­ute to higher inflation, weaker growth, and market volatility.

Mockup of Year Ahead 2025 publication

Download the PDF

In this Year Ahead, we look at key developments that we believe will shape the next stage of these “Roaring 20s,” including US political change, falling interest rates, and transformational innovation in artificial intelligence and in power and resources.

Get in touch

Together, we can help you pursue what’s important

Disclaimers

Year Ahead 2025 – UBS House View
Chief Investment Office GWM  |  Investment Research

This report has been prepared by UBS AG, UBS AG London Branch, UBS Switzerland AG, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS), UBS AG Singapore Branch, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch, and UBS SuMi TRUST Wealth Management Co., Ltd.