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Lower for longer - The impact of sluggish inflation on expected returns
As market volatility, liquidity issues and low yields challenge investment returns, investors also need to consider whether and how inflation will affect their portfolios. In this paper, we review the underlying factors that have suppressed inflation in the recent past, look at the latest macroeconomic data for pointers to the likely trajectory of inflation in the near future, and suggest some effective tactical solutions for investors.
The combination of an ageing demographic, unconventional monetary policy, and increased financial market regulation post the global financial crisis has left real interest rates globally in a structurally lower regime. Like a limbo stick that has shifted down, lower real rates implies the capital markets line across all asset classes has shifted down leaving expected returns structurally lower.
The investment drought - How can the problem of weak investment be fixed
In this White Paper we aim to address some of the potential causes of the recent investment malaise, and propose potential solutions. We also explore some of the structural shifts in the global economy that point to the most promising areas for long-term investment.
The New Global Context – Could economic transformations threaten stability? WEF 2015
The white paper for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2015 in Davos (Switzerland), draws on analysis from across UBS to tackle the central theme of the Annual Meeting – The New Global Context faced by the world economy this year and beyond. The paper includes a foreword by Axel Weber, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Sergio P. Ermotti, Group Chief Executive Officer, as well as contributions from Andreas Koester in the Multi Asset team.