India analysts

Meet our analysts participating in India II

 

Autos & Auto Parts

        

Sonal Gupta
+91-22-6155 6063
Email

Sonal has published several differentiated pieces highlighting emerging trends in the auto sector. He took an in-depth look at on-going premiumisation in the car market and increasing content per car. His negative view in "Motorcycles turning into a zero sum game" attracted attention. He has produced detailed work on emerging revenue streams from the advance of emission norms. Sonal continues to support his views on the sector with detailed on-the-ground dealer surveys and UBS Evidence Lab reports.

 

Basic Materials

      

William Vanderpump
+91-22-6155 6078
Email

William has focused on steel in recent months, where the key theme has been conditions in China regarding the demand outlook and prospects for supply reform. He has combined detailed global research and on-the-ground insights. In terms of the Indian steel market, key investor concerns have been leverage and consolidation in Europe, and the potential upside/downside for equities. William addressed some of these concerns in his detailed December 2015 reports and collaborative pieces on European consolidation.

Hemant Bakhru
+91-22-6155 6057
Email

Hemant has been covering the India pharma sector for over 10 years. Over the last year, his key theme has been the benefit to generic penetration of stronger payers in the US, although pricing pressure will likely continue with M&A among US insurers. He has discussed the tighter regulatory landscape in: "Are the US FDA issues structural", and analysed potential competition from Chinese firms ("Assessing the competition from China pharmas"). In the cement sector, he did an extensive analysis of the supply side to emphasise that limited capacity additions should bring price discipline.

 

Capital Goods

      

Gopal Ritolia
+91-22-6155 6055
Email

Gopal's coverage includes Indian capital goods, infrastructure and utility stocks. He has done comprehensive work on analysing how outcomes in a public capex driven investment cycle are significantly inferior to a private sector driven cycle. Gopal quantified the "unfulfilled" power demand in India for the first time based on survey of power outages across 150 towns and data on power consumption patterns across sectors. His differentiated work on utilities and capital goods companies is based on in-depth project level analysis and interactions with multiple regulators.

 

Consumer/Staples, Consumer/Discretionary

      

Sunita Sachdev
+91-22-6155 6062
Email

Sunita provides differentiated insights into the Indian consumer sector. Through her reports she has highlighted structural changes in the sector and displayed understanding of key companies. Sunita has worked on global consumer reports that analysed topics such as the impact of brand success in markets such as Brazil versus India and acquisitions and restructuring in the spirits market in India and its impact on a global spirits major. She hosts the Consumer Reverse Roadshow, which is now a calendar event for consumer specialists.

 

Economics

      

Edward Teather
+65-6495 5965
Email

Covering the Indian and ASEAN economies, Ed's work has focused on putting India's economy in a regional context with a special emphasis on the regional credit cycle. Over the last 18 months Ed's key calls have been lower inflation and lower rates in India, and credit-related headwinds to growth in ASEAN. He currently expects a process of balance sheet repair to limit the acceleration of real growth in India while setting the stage for the next credit cycle upswing. Ed has 18 years of experience as an economist with UBS.

 

Engineering, Procurement & Construction

      

Gopal Ritolia
+91-22-6155 6055
Email

Gopal's coverage includes Indian capital goods, infrastructure and utility stocks. He has done comprehensive work on analysing how outcomes in a public capex driven investment cycle are significantly inferior to a private sector driven cycle. Gopal quantified the "unfulfilled" power demand in India for the first time based on survey of power outages across 150 towns and data on power consumption patterns across sectors. His differentiated work on utilities and capital goods companies is based on in-depth project level analysis and interactions with multiple regulators.

 

Financials/Banks, Financials/Nonbanks

      

Vishal Goyal
+91-22-6155 6050
Email

Vishal has been covering financials for over 10 years and leads the UBS India Financials team. He has been highlighting NPL concerns in the sector with thought provoking notes like “Deep dive into lending practices” and has been recommending defensive stocks versus SOEs and corporate lenders. Recently with the help of the UBS Evidence Lab team, he published an insightful piece on digital disruption and the quality of the retail deposit franchise. He believes the life insurance sector in India bottomed out in FY15 and he has highlighted long term potential beneficiaries.

 

Health Care & Pharmaceuticals

      

Hemant Bakhru
+91-22-6155 6057
Email

Hemant has been covering the India pharma sector for over 10 years. Over the last year, his key theme has been the benefit to generic penetration of stronger payers in the US, although pricing pressure will likely continue with M&A among US insurers. He has discussed the tighter regulatory landscape in: "Are the US FDA issues structural", and analysed potential competition from Chinese firms ("Assessing the competition from China pharmas"). In the cement sector, he did an extensive analysis of the supply side to emphasise that limited capacity additions should bring price discipline.

 

Information Technology

      

Diviya Nagarajan
+852-3712 2740
Email

Diviya is a thought leader in the IT services space with extensive industry experience. She has provided differentiated coverage through her work on the ongoing changes in the sector with her early call on business model disruption. She also provided differentiated corporate access with an Automation Day in London earlier this year being a highlight. Identifying sector trends early continues to be one of her key value additions as an analyst in an overcrowded sector.

 

Media

      

Sanjena Dadawala
+91-22-6155 6058
Email

Sanjena is a member of Gautam Chhaochharia's India Equity Strategy team. The team continues to highlight slower-than-expected growth recovery (due to fiscal constraints, a sluggish urban recovery and disappointment with the Pay Commission), and advises investors against over-optimism regarding recent optically strong high frequency data. While the team remains constructive on India in the medium term, further earnings cuts are likely (Q3 disappointing, Q4 in line), which may limit a market re-rating. Sanjena assumed coverage of the India media sector with a positive view, based on a robust advertising outlook and an improving subscription environment.

 

Oil & Gas

      

Ashish Jagnani
+91-22-6155 6061
Email

Ashish covers India oil & gas, and real estate. He is positive on a number of energy themes, primarily downstream capex-led growth and LNG demand, and holds a non-consensus cautious view on oil marketing SOEs. He organised a field trip in March 2016 that facilitated meetings with the oil minister and most of the SOEs. In property, he is positive on office/REIT potential and affordable housing.

 

Portfolio Strategy

      

Gautam Chhaochharia
+91-22-6155 6080
Email

Gautam has been highlighting that a macro and earnings growth recovery will be slower and lower than the market's expectations since early 2015. He has used UBS Evidence Lab surveys and deep dives into high frequency data to buttress his point, implying further earnings cuts ahead. Gautam continues to argue that inflation in India is not structural, the key to his 200bp lower interest rate view. He has been cautious on mid-caps since late 2015, but advocates key bottom-up ideas. Gautam hosts a unique mid-cap conference every year in June.

 

Power

      

Gopal Ritolia
+91-22-6155 6055
Email

Gopal's coverage includes Indian capital goods, infrastructure and utility stocks. He has done comprehensive work on analysing how outcomes in a public capex driven investment cycle are significantly inferior to a private sector driven cycle. Gopal quantified the "unfulfilled" power demand in India for the first time based on survey of power outages across 150 towns and data on power consumption patterns across sectors. His differentiated work on utilities and capital goods companies is based on in-depth project level analysis and interactions with multiple regulators.

 

Real Estate

      

Ashish Jagnani
+91-22-6155 6061
Email

Ashish covers India oil & gas, and real estate. He is positive on a number of energy themes, primarily downstream capex-led growth and LNG demand, and holds a non-consensus cautious view on oil marketing SOEs. He organised a field trip in March 2016 that facilitated meetings with the oil minister and most of the SOEs. In property, he is positive on office/REIT potential and affordable housing.

 

Small- & Midcapitalization Stocks

      

Gautam Chhaochharia
+91-22-6155 6080
Email

Gautam has been highlighting that a macro and earnings growth recovery will be slower and lower than the market's expectations since early 2015. He has used UBS Evidence Lab surveys and deep dives into high frequency data to buttress his point, implying further earnings cuts ahead. Gautam continues to argue that inflation in India is not structural, the key to his 200bp lower interest rate view. He has been cautious on mid-caps since late 2015, but advocates key bottom-up ideas. Gautam hosts a unique mid-cap conference every year in June.

 

Telecommunications

      

Suresh Mahadevan
+65-6495 5906
Email

Suresh has produced thought-provoking research pieces, has led Asian telecom conferences, and has provided corporate access at the CEO and CFO level. Suresh's notable calls have included: 1) downgrading Singapore telcos in May 2015; 2) remaining positive on Hong Kong telcos in 2015; and 3) his positive view on Indonesian telcos. His key research includes: "Will history rhyme? Lessons from 2003", "A perfect storm in Singapore Mobile", "Q-Series®: Is Rapid Data Growth in India priced in?", "Rising tide to lift all boats - Indonesia Mobile", and "Enter the Dragon - HK telcos".