Staying the course amid uncertainty

Key takeaways

  • Some investors are concerned by tensions related to North Korea and the possibility of swifter rate hikes from the Fed, but CIO Americas, Wealth Management (CIO-A WM) remains confident that the markets can grind higher thanks to solid fundamentals.
  • Investors who disengage from equity markets will likely miss out on further gains, with global equities expected to outperform bonds by 3% to 5% over the six-month investment horizon.
  • CIO-A WM is overweight global equities relative to government bonds. Within U.S. equities, it is overweight large-cap value relative to large-cap growth. In currencies, CIO-A WM favors the Canadian dollar to the Australian dollar.
  • To help investors position their investments for future global trends, CIO-A WM is introducing a new sustainable investment theme: renewables.
  • Talk to your UBS Financial Advisor about how you can best position your portfolio to take advantage of evolving global trends and shifts in the investment landscape.

With the recent 10th anniversary of the financial crisis on many investors’ minds, we think about how the world has changed since then. Before the financial crisis, New York’s renowned Waldorf-Astoria was home to some of the most prestigious investment conferences and the home away from home for many U.S. presidents. Today, investment conferences are held elsewhere and presidents no longer stay there. But the classic Waldorf salad, born at the Waldorf-Astoria, remains a quintessential delight enjoyed the world over – and it probably has much to teach in the old saying: The difference between a great salad and garbage is timing. And so it goes when it comes to investing.

Late = wrong, early = wrong
Trying to time the market is never a good idea. While we all fear staying in an investment until it’s rotten, being too early can also be sickening for a portfolio. Remember all the investors who successfully predicted the 2011 Eurozone crisis? If they were more than 10 months too early, they would still have underperformed a passive “buy and hold” investor in global equities.

Today, two prominent concerns – a North Korea conflict and Fed rate hikes – are causing investors to grow increasingly anxious. Those who flee risk assets can miss out on returns if risk events never materialize or if they occur later than expected. How can you capitalize on opportunities if you’re in and out of the markets – and possibly missing some of the best-performing days?

CIO Americas, Wealth Management (CIO-A WM) offers investment strategies and specific asset allocation guidance to help investors feel confident about exposure to the markets in its new UBS House View publication entitled: “Waldorf salad” (PDF, 1 MB) We believe that through a disciplined approach to risk management, investors can benefit from long-term upside, while also navigating some of the potential shocks along the way.

And, in continuing to offer investors forward looking global guidance, this edition of UBS House View focuses on renewables (PDF, 1 MB),. With renewable energy sources projected to play an increasingly important role in the global energy mix, this new theme offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity.

For more on CIO-A, WM's investment outlook and portfolio recommendations, read Waldorf salad (PDF, 1 MB).

Is your portfolio prepared for a changing, complex global investment environment? Together we can find an answer. Connect with your UBS Financial Advisor or find one.

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Next call: Thursday, September 7, 2017

Join us for our next UBS House View monthly call and get the latest on our market views and investment strategy guidance. * Mark your calendar as the UBS House View call takes place the first Thursday of every month at 1:00 p.m., ET/10:00 a.m., PT.

Call details:

U.S. toll-free dial in: 1-877-200-4456

International (toll) dial in: 785-424-1743
Participant code: 46502#

Listen to the replay from our September 7, 2017 call:

U.S. toll-free dial in: 866-415-9424
International (toll) dial in: 205-476-0997
Replay code: 46502#