• ECB: A changing of the guard

    Who will succeed Mario Draghi as European Central Bank President when he steps down next year? And what might the choice of successor mean for Eurozone monetary policy? CIO assesses the potential implications of a changing of the guard at the top of the ECB. more

  • Italy: What you need to know about the election

    Italy will hold general elections on March 4. Polls suggest that no coalition will be able to reach an outright majority. The center-right coalition is leading in the polls, albeit not enough to form a government of its own. more

  • Is there a trade war coming?

    The US Commerce Department is recommending new steel and aluminum import tariffs and quotas, offering President Trump three paths of varying scope and severity for each case. more

  • UK government's Brexit plan still shrouded in mist

    The UK government's vision of the future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains as unclear as ever. This is partly due to Prime Minister Theresa May's weak grip on her party, which is bitterly divided between Brexiteers and Remainers. Meanwhile, phase two of the Brexit negotiations has started with some tough demands from the EU. more

  • EM(U) winners: Another way to play EM growth

    CIO believes faster economic growth in emerging markets should benefit a range of Eurozone companies with significant sales exposure there. Its investment theme, "EM(U) winners", identifies stocks that appear well placed to benefit from rising prosperity among EM consumers. more

  • Are bonds building inflation fears?

    The recent rise in US bond yields has raised questions about the US economy. Economists began 2018 having to fend off questions about recession. Now the questions are about overheating and inflation. more

  • Zuma out, Ramaphosa in

    Almost nine years after being elected president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma has resigned with immediate effect. CIO has reiterated its overweight positions on South African credit and equities and adjusted its USDZAR forecast. more

  • Have higher yields stopped spooking equities?

    Stronger-than-expected US inflation data has pushed US 10-year yields to 2.93 percent, their highest level since January 2014.Yet, while last week fears of higher yields contributed to one of the worst weeks for the S&P 500 since the financial crisis, this week equity markets are rising, even though yields have continued to move up, say CIO ecnomist Brian Rose and strategist Vincent Heaney. more

  • Ruble wobbles, but fundamentals remain sound

    The Russian ruble suffered amid the market sell-off in early February. CIO thinks further near-term setbacks can't be ruled out, especially if oil prices weaken. But support should come from improving domestic economic conditions, an attractive interest rate carry, and prudent monetary policy. more

  • Risk-reward opportunities in commodities

    While higher bond yields and sliding equity markets had a negative spillover effect on commodity prices, upward revision of global growth estimates has improved CIO's outlook for the asset class. more

  • Germany – Grand Coalition likely but risks remain

    The German government formation is entering its decisive phase. After the longest deadlock of the post war period, the rank and file of the center left Social Democratic Party (SPD) will have a final say on the coalition agreement reached earlier with Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU. CIO's base case remains that a Merkel-led government will be formed before Easter – but uncertainty remains high. more

  • EURCHF: The long way back

    The euro-Swiss franc rate climbed very briefly above 1.18 earlier this year, the highest it's been since the "franc shock" of January 2015. The rate has since fallen back, but CIO thinks the general uptrend should resume, supported by solid fundamentals. more