Over the summer, the US economy set a record for the longest economic expansion in its history. Given slowing growth momentum, an 更多 unresolved trade dispute, and a partly inverted yield curve, investors are now asking about where we stand in the economic cycle, how much longer the economic expansion might last, and how to invest according to different cycle scenarios.
Indonesia's president is planning to relocate the country's capital away from Jakarta, a city riddled with poor infrastructure and frequent flooding. The ambitious proposal highlights the demand for large-scale infrastructure investment in emerging markets; a theme for which CIO sees attractive long-term investment opportunities. 更多
With the current bull market officially the longest in U.S history, one frequent investor concern relates to the state of elevated private market multiples. While we view current levels as warranted, we acknowledge that higher purchase prices can provide a challenge to future returns. As a way to navigate these challenges, a focus on operational value creation can provide investors a way to rely less on cyclical factors to drive returns 更多
The bond markets are signaling increasing concern over the economic outlook. For the first time since the global financial crisis, the 10-year US bond yield briefly fell below the 2-year US bond yield, a development seen by many as a precursor to a US recession and a sell signal for equity investors. 更多
The "stretch" feature of Inherited IRAs makes them an effective estate planning tool for many investors. However, there are currently two retirement bills being proposed by the House and Senate that call for the elimination of this popular benefit. 更多
Around USD 100bn of investment in renewable energy will be required to support commitments by the RE100, a group of companies committed to offsetting 100% of their electricity demand from green sources, according to the latest analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). 更多
The main concern preoccupying investors at the G20 meeting in late June was the potential for a trade war between the US and China. But Japan's finance minister Taro Aso highlighted a longer-term threat: the aging global population. 更多
Assessing the impact of tariffs and trade- related retaliatory measures on such a complex and diversified economy as the US isn’t as straightforward as it may seem. While we may be able to quantify first order effects, the second and third order effects are far more significant and therefore more difficult to capture. 更多
In just the past few weeks investor sentiment has fundamentally changed. Since the 31 July FOMC meeting, 10-year yields have plummeted close to 60bp (with a 1.47% yield the intra-day low), and interest rate volatility has Spiked. 更多
For about five minutes during US market hours yesterday, the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields became negative, signaling a so-called inversion. This was the first such inversion of this well-known market indicator since 2007, and although it lasted only for a very brief period of time, we do acknowledge that the 3-month/10-year yield curve has remained inverted for close to three months. 更多
Strong retail sales figures suggest US consumers are continuing to prop up the economy, helping partially to offset the hit to business confidence from the US-China trade conflict. Sales were up 0.7% month-on-month in July, the fifth consecutive increase and the fastest in four months. 更多
Art Cashin, the Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE for UBS, discusses the latest news and events impacting the markets. This week: A review of the key catalysts which drove what was a volatile week in the global markets, including US-China trade, the Hong Kong protests, macro data-points and the week ahead. 更多
Farm differently, eat more veggies, says the UN. In a report released last week, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC) highlighted the many ways in which rising temperatures have affected agriculture and conversely, the way our current methods of food production contribute to climate change. 更多
Global risk-on/off sentiment has driven the prices of oil and gold. The Chief Investment Office (CIO) takes a look at the fundamentals. 更多
I'm afraid a lot of investors are drawing the wrong conclusion from the -40% collapse in Argentinian equities. 更多
Alejo Czerwonko, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office dives into recent developments surrounding two notable geopolitical topics, US-China trade relations and the recent Argentina elections. 更多
Weak economic data and a further flattening of the US Treasury yield curve on Wednesday led the S&P 500 to decline 2.93%, global equities 2.85%, and emerging market stocks 2.88%. Mounting economic worries stemmed from weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production, while German GDP contracted in the second quarter. 更多
Leslie Falconio, the Chief Investment Office's (CIO) Senior Fixed Income Strategist discusses how fixed income assets perform during easing cycles, where Treasury yields are headed and how credit investors should position in the current environment, and more. 更多
*To be fair, a recession is always coming at some point in the future. But I'm glad I got your attention with the headline. Please keep reading... 更多
