Финансовое образование

Global Economy Manufacturing a recession?

Recent data points to a sharp slowdown in the global manufacturing sector. The latest German manufacturing PMI reading is 43.6, Больше signaling contraction. Chinese industrial output rose by just 4.8% year on year in July, the slowest rate of growth in 17 years. And with new US-China tariffs set to take effect in September, it is likely, in our view, that the US ISM Manufacturing index will fall below 50 in the months ahead.

  • Longer term investment themes The ABCs of EdTech

    Students are preparing for the start of school. Many of us look back on school with nostalgia, but after years of technological advances, back to school in 2019 may look a lot different than we remember. Gone are the days of 'my dog ate my homework': homework can now be submitted by the push of a button, classes are in the cloud, and video games are tools, not tickets to detention. Disruptive technologies are changing the way we educate. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 23 Aug 2019
  • Emerging market fixed income Argentina: possible political scenarios

    The Argentine political outlook has changed markedly. We outline four possible scenarios as we prepare for the 27 October presidential election. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 23 Aug 2019
  • US equities S&P 500 EPS: slower for longer

    While it certainly feels like the dog days of summer here in New York, it's been anything but quiet in financial markets. Investors have had to contend with a number of developments over the past few weeks, all of which suggest a more muted outlook for earnings growth and increasing risks for stocks. Trade frictions have escalated, global growth continues to slow, and interest rates have plummeted. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 23 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Plant-based meat hints at climate change solutions

    Satellite images of unchecked forest fires across the Amazon have elicited international concern, as one of the planet’s most important natural systems for capturing and sequestering CO2 comes under significant strain. This year’s burning season has by some counts has seen twice as many fires as last year. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 23 Aug 2019
  • Markets Art Cashin - On the markets (08/22)

    Art Cashin, the Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE for UBS, discusses the latest news and events impacting the markets. This week: A recap of the July FOMC meeting minutes, a preview of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, thoughts on the Volcker Rule, an update on trade and the week ahead. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 22 Aug 2019
  • Commodities Trade woes weighing on oil demand

    Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have prompted our economists to downgrade their 2H19 and 2020 global economic growth forecasts. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 22 Aug 2019
  • Portfolio management Bear markets for the young

    "Youth is the best time to be rich, and the best time to be poor," according to Euripides. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 22 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Still spending

    The weakness of manufacturing remains a source of fragility for the global economy. Data today pointed to a contraction in industrial activity in both Japan and Germany. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 22 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Italy isn't Europe's only risk

    Investors have responded with a shrug to the collapse of Italy's government. The spread between 10-year Italian bonds and their safer German counterparts has barely budged at around 200 basis points, well below a high of 325 basis points over the past 12 months. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 21 Aug 2019
  • Global financial markets Cycle scenarios: How can investors position?

    Over the summer, the US economy set a record for the longest economic expansion in its history. Given slowing growth momentum, an unresolved trade dispute, and a partly inverted yield curve, investors are now asking about where we stand in the economic cycle, how much longer the economic expansion might last, and how to invest according to different cycle scenarios. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 20 Aug 2019
  • Longer term investments Thinking big: A new capital city?

    Indonesia's president is planning to relocate the country's capital away from Jakarta, a city riddled with poor infrastructure and frequent flooding. The ambitious proposal highlights the demand for large-scale infrastructure investment in emerging markets; a theme for which CIO sees attractive long-term investment opportunities. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 20 Aug 2019
  • Intellectual Capital Blog Are U.S. private markets overvalued?

    With the current bull market officially the longest in U.S history, one frequent investor concern relates to the state of elevated private market multiples. While we view current levels as warranted, we acknowledge that higher purchase prices can provide a challenge to future returns. As a way to navigate these challenges, a focus on operational value creation can provide investors a way to rely less on cyclical factors to drive returns Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 20 Aug 2019
  • Market commentary Bond markets signal lower for longer

    The bond markets are signaling increasing concern over the economic outlook. For the first time since the global financial crisis, the 10-year US bond yield briefly fell below the 2-year US bond yield, a development seen by many as a precursor to a US recession and a sell signal for equity investors. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 20 Aug 2019
  • Retirement We'll probably survive the "new death tax"

    The "stretch" feature of Inherited IRAs makes them an effective estate planning tool for many investors. However, there are currently two retirement bills being proposed by the House and Senate that call for the elimination of this popular benefit. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 20 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Corporate appetite for green energy is increasing

    Around USD 100bn of investment in renewable energy will be required to support commitments by the RE100, a group of companies committed to offsetting 100% of their electricity demand from green sources, according to the latest analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 20 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US 5 tips to prep your company for demographic change

    The main concern preoccupying investors at the G20 meeting in late June was the potential for a trade war between the US and China. But Japan's finance minister Taro Aso highlighted a longer-term threat: the aging global population. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 19 Aug 2019
  • Market Commentary Talking trade in Seattle

    Assessing the impact of tariffs and trade- related retaliatory measures on such a complex and diversified economy as the US isn’t as straightforward as it may seem. While we may be able to quantify first order effects, the second and third order effects are far more significant and therefore more difficult to capture. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 19 Aug 2019
  • Fixed income Interest rate outlook - changing sentiment

    In just the past few weeks investor sentiment has fundamentally changed. Since the 31 July FOMC meeting, 10-year yields have plummeted close to 60bp (with a 1.47% yield the intra-day low), and interest rate volatility has Spiked. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 19 Aug 2019
  • Fixed Income A 5-minute inversion: what comes next?

    For about five minutes during US market hours yesterday, the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields became negative, signaling a so-called inversion. This was the first such inversion of this well-known market indicator since 2007, and although it lasted only for a very brief period of time, we do acknowledge that the 3-month/10-year yield curve has remained inverted for close to three months. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 16 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US US heading toward subpar growth, not recession

    Strong retail sales figures suggest US consumers are continuing to prop up the economy, helping partially to offset the hit to business confidence from the US-China trade conflict. Sales were up 0.7% month-on-month in July, the fifth consecutive increase and the fastest in four months. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 16 Aug 2019
  • Markets Art Cashin - On the markets (08/15)

    Art Cashin, the Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE for UBS, discusses the latest news and events impacting the markets. This week: A review of the key catalysts which drove what was a volatile week in the global markets, including US-China trade, the Hong Kong protests, macro data-points and the week ahead. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 16 Aug 2019
  • Sustainable investing Food revolution needed to combat climate change

    Farm differently, eat more veggies, says the UN. In a report released last week, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC) highlighted the many ways in which rising temperatures have affected agriculture and conversely, the way our current methods of food production contribute to climate change. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Commodities CIO quick take on gold, oil

    Global risk-on/off sentiment has driven the prices of oil and gold. The Chief Investment Office (CIO) takes a look at the fundamentals. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Geopolitics Podcast: Trade dispute, Argentina

    Alejo Czerwonko, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office dives into recent developments surrounding two notable geopolitical topics, US-China trade relations and the recent Argentina elections. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Markets Yields signal recession risk? We say not so fast.

    Weak economic data and a further flattening of the US Treasury yield curve on Wednesday led the S&P 500 to decline 2.93%, global equities 2.85%, and emerging market stocks 2.88%. Mounting economic worries stemmed from weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production, while German GDP contracted in the second quarter. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Fixed Income Podcast: Fixed Income Strategist

    Leslie Falconio, the Chief Investment Office's (CIO) Senior Fixed Income Strategist discusses how fixed income assets perform during easing cycles, where Treasury yields are headed and how credit investors should position in the current environment, and more. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 Aug 2019
  • Planning A recession is coming*

    *To be fair, a recession is always coming at some point in the future. But I'm glad I got your attention with the headline. Please keep reading... Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Tariffs partially delayed

    The US Trade Representative has announced a partial delay in the imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese imports. While final details have not been published, for around half of the approximately USD 300bn worth of goods, it appears that the 10% tariffs originally scheduled to be imposed on 1 September will be delayed until 15 December. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 Aug 2019
  • Argentina Argentina: Unexpected victory for opposition

    Primary elections took place in Argentina on Sunday. The results revealed unanticipated voter preferences that give a much clearer outlook for the 24 October general elections. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • Retirement The cost of long-term care

    The number of Americans who will need long-term care is expected to double in the next 30 years. According to a recent UBS investor survey, about one-third of wealthy investors now have a parent who needs some kind of assistance. Most investors say they hope to be able to age in their homes and hire care when needed, or move to an assisted living situation if necessary. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • US Economy Trade disputes threaten recovery

    With policy uncertainty weighing on business investment, further escalation of trade disputes raises the risk of a recession. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on 31 July and we now expect an additional 75 basis points of cuts by next March. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Political turmoil shows diversification benefits

    Concerns that escalating trade tensions will slow global growth have prompted equity markets to retreat from recent highs and have helped send global bond yields lower. Growing political concerns have further dented investor sentiment in recent days. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • House View Weekly What's behind the "Currency Manipulator" label?

    The US Department of the Treasury officially labeled China a "currency manipulator" last week, following the latest bout of weakness in the yuan that pushed the Chinese currency above 7 per US dollar. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 12 Aug 2019
  • Intellectual Capital Blog Curb your enthusiasm

    Industrials stocks held up better than feared during the second quarter earnings season despite overall growth and earnings guidance that was worse than expected. Going into the quarter we believed that management's guidance was largely too aggressive which would result in earnings misses and guidance cuts for the back half of this year. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 12 Aug 2019