Финансовое образование

Global Risk Radar All the President's threats

We have revised our investment scenarios as the US-China trade dispute has intensified. We still see a risk (30%) that Больше negotiations will break down and the US raises tariffs on the balance of its imports from China. We see little chance (20%) of a breakthrough at the G20 summit at the end of June.

  • Sustainable investing Miami confronts climate change

    Miami Beach is among a growing list of US municipal bond issuers citing climate change as an investment risk. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 17 May 2019
  • ElectionWatch 2020 Election: 7 issues to watch

    It’s easy to get distracted by political rhetoric and by issues that are politically important but have limited impact on markets and investors’ financial plans. The Chief Investment Office breaks the top issues into seven broad categories that will likely be relevant through, and beyond, election night. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 16 May 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Expect volatility as the US uses carrot and stick

    News on Wednesday that President Donald Trump appears set to delay the imposition of tariffs on auto imports helped equity markets shrug off earlier losses on weaker US and China macro data. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 16 May 2019
  • ElectionWatch Do incumbents have the advantage in elections?

    In the 32 elections where incumbent presidents ran as a candidate, 22 resulted in re-election—a 69% win rate. Since 1948, there have been 11 presidential elections with incumbent candidates; an incumbent was re-elected in 8 of these elections (72% win rate). Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 16 May 2019
  • Intellectual Capital Blog Fixed income: US rates stay within the range

    With volatility increasing alongside US-China trade tensions, the 10-year US Treasury yield has managed to remain within our forecast range of 2.3–2.8% during 2019. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 May 2019
  • Commodities Gold: A hedge with benefits

    The gold price has been on a roller-coaster this year. After rising from USD 1,280/oz at the start of the year to nearly USD 1,350/oz in February thanks to the Federal Reserve's dovish shift, gold prices fell to a four-month low of USD 1,270/oz in April. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 May 2019
  • Artificial Intelligence Rise of the machines

    It's not exactly Skynet and cyborg assassins taking over the world, like in The Terminator, but Amazon has taken a step closer towards one of mankind's greatest fears - giving our jobs to robots and machines. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 May 2019
  • Equities CIO maintains a constructive outlook on US stocks

    Amid headlines of an escalation in trade tensions, and an uptick in volatility that has seen the S&P 500 drop as much as 5% from its all-time high, CIO reiterates its constructive view on the US equity market. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 May 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Stimulus expectations underpin Chinese equities

    Chinese activity data for April released on 15 May was weaker than expected and softer than in March. Retail sales growth decreased from 8.7% y/y in March to 5.4%, a 16-year low. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 15 May 2019
  • Equities The pricing on the cake

    Equity markets continued to slide yesterday as escalating trade tensions between the US and China reignited fears of a global growth slowdown. The tit-for-tat tariff spat between the US and China is not the only concern on investors' minds. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 May 2019
  • UBS House View Weekly Mike Ryan's take on Investment Sentiment Survey

    The findings of the UBS Investor Sentiment survey certainly served to validate our views about the current economic outlook. According to the high net worth investors and business owners surveyed, confidence in the current economic expansion remains solid. About two-thirds of businesses and 56% of high net worth investors were confident about growth prospects over the next 12 months. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 May 2019
  • Municipal Market Guide Why are munis attracting so much cash?

    Investor demand for municipal bonds has been nothing short of extraordinary in 2019. As a point of reference, tax-exempt mutual funds have been on the receiving end of net cash inflows for 17 consecutive weeks. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 May 2019
  • Modern retirement monthly Retirement: Destination or transition?

    The definition of retirement alludes to the idea that after a retirement date, employment ends entirely. But an increasing number of Americans are reshaping the retirement picture by incorporating some form of work into their transition. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 May 2019
  • Markets Trade brinkmanship drives down markets

    After a weekend of confrontational trade rhetoric, China retaliated to last week’s US tariff increase, and markets fell sharply. From Friday's close through the end of trading on Monday, the S&P 500 was down 2.4% and the MSCI China Index fell about 3.8%. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 14 May 2019
  • House View – Regional view, Asia Tariff escalation: Equity impact and strategy

    The prospects of a US-China trade accord have gone from being a "done deal" to "still hopeful" in the span of a few tweets. While the increased threat of new US tariffs and likely Chinese retaliation certainly complicate matters, CIO still sees upside for Asia's equity markets this year – so long as both sides eventually agree to a deal. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 May 2019
  • House View – Deeper dive Taking action to limit US-China trade risks

    US-China trade talks took a negative turn in the past week. The US increased tariffs on USD 200bn of Chinese imports, with officials accusing China of backtracking on agreements made during months of negotiations. China retaliated by imposing tariffs on USD 60bn of US goods with rates of up to 25%, starting 1 June. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 May 2019
  • Client call Special Client Call: US-China trade dispute

    On Friday, Mike Ryan, Chief Investment Officer Americas and John Savercool, Head of the US Office of Public Policy, hosted a special conversation on trade and market volatility. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 May 2019
  • Volatility Can investors limit risk without giving up gains?

    Staying calm through volatility is key, and this has paid off for investors in 2019, with global equities rallying more than 12% so far this year. Even so, investors need to manage potential downside risks. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 May 2019
  • Eurozone Race for Europe's top jobs remains wide open

    Who will be the next President of the European Commission? As last week's European Council meeting in Romania has shown, divisions are running deep when it comes to the selection process. Therefore, neither the leading candidate of the center-right nor the socialists can be certain that they will inherit Jean-Claude Juncker's job. This has also implications for the ECB's changeover. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 13 May 2019
  • Investment strategy insights The IPO market is heating up,will it boil over?

    Things are getting hot in the US IPO market. Need proof? For the first time since 2000, the share price of a company with a market cap of at least USD 200 million increased over 100% on its first trading day. That’s not surprising given the hype this year around the IPOs by many “unicorns”— private companies with estimated valuations over USD 1 billion. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 11 May 2019
  • Washington Weekly Under the Dome: The Week in Review

    What a difference a week makes. A US-China trade deal seemed close to resolution a week ago, but today we are dealing with new US tariff increases—from 10% to 25%—on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. In turn, China this morning announced retaliation on US imports. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 11 May 2019
  • Hedge funds Why look at Asian hedge funds?

    Question: Why look at Asian hedge funds? The short answer: to diversify geographically, get access to attractive risk-adjusted returns and potentially benefit from a rich alpha opportunity set. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 10 May 2019
  • Fixed income It's time to meet halfway

    In this issue of the Fixed Income Strategist, we discuss the historical outperformance of fixed income risk assets, the return of the “Goldilocks” investor, and how CIO is shaping its outlook via a barbell strategy to maintain current yield and total return. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 10 May 2019
  • Markets US-China dispute: Taking action to manage risk

    The week's events have shown the lack of stability in US-China trade relations. A return to tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China would represent a threat to the global economy and equity markets. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 10 May 2019
  • Market commentary Art Cashin - on the markets (5/9)

    Each week, Art Cashin, the Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE for UBS, discusses the latest news and events impacting the markets. This week: Where we stand and where we are going with respect to US and China trade negotiations, brewing tensions between the US and Iran, notable Fed speakers, and update on the Q1 corporate earnings season and the week ahead. Host: Daniel Cassidy Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 09 May 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Trade uncertainty continues to rise

    Chinese equities sold off on Thursday (Hang Seng index –2.0%, CSI 300 – 1.9%) and the yuan depreciated past 6.80 versus the US dollar amid continued fears that US President Donald Trump plans to levy higher tariffs on imports of Chinese goods. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 09 May 2019
  • Federal Reserve Softer loan demand but supportive economic signals

    The Federal Reserve Board released its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) of bank lending practices yesterday showing bank responses to questions about recent loan demand and underwriting standards completed on 5 April 2019. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 08 May 2019
  • Investor sentiment Investor sentiment survey: Mostly sunny

    UBS surveyed more than 3,600 investors worldwide, and found that more than half of US investors are optimistic about the economy and stock market. Two-thirds of investors see volatility as an opportunity, and about a quarter plan to invest more in the next six months. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 08 May 2019
  • Market Commentary Trade fears intensify

    If President Trump is trying to etch-a-sketch his name onto the S&P 500 chart, investors are not going to be able to trade around it. We recommend not making major changes in portfolios at this stage, and staying invested. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 08 May 2019
  • House View – US Regional View A speck of red in a sea of green

    The municipal bond market has registered six consecutive months of positive returns, boosted by investors seeking shelter from a change to state and local tax deductions that resulted in higher tax burdens in some states. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 07 May 2019
  • Intellectual capital blog Gaming moves onto the next level

    Video games have become mainstream and their popularity can be found everywhere. Jimmy Kimmel showcased parents recording their child's hilarious reaction when they turned off the TV in the middle of a game and CNBC interviewed Tyler "Ninja" Blevins, one of the most popular players who makes over USD 500,000 a month. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 07 May 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Bracing for the finale of US-China talks

    Markets continued to give a mixed response to President Trump's unexpected weekend tweet, which threatened higher import tariffs on Chinese goods. Having opened 1.6% lower, the S&P 500 ended the day just 0.5% lower on Monday. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 07 May 2019
  • Retirement Making the most of Medicare

    If you are approaching the age of 65, it's an excellent time to learn about how Medicare works. In the years before retirement, many people have misconceptions about Medicare. The two biggest ones are that Medicare is free and that coverage is automatic. Больше

    • от UBS Редакционная коллегия
    • 06 May 2019