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UBS Consumption Indicator rises in June

Zurich/Basel Media Releases Switzerland

The sharp increase in new car registrations was the main driver of the rise in the UBS Consumption Indicator in June.

After a revised level of 1.71 in May, the UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.81 in June, its highest level since July 2008.

The UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated from five sub-indicators: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss citizens, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland.

The rise in the Consumption Indicator in June is attributable to the sharp increase in new car registrations. The increase in the number of domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss citizens and improved consumer sentiment also contributed to this positive result. Business activity in the retail sector, however, was disappointing.

According to the estimates of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, private consumption was 2.3% higher in the first quarter of this year than in the previous year after being adjusted for inflation. We expect the Consumption Indicator to rise further in the coming months. Several of the components used to calculate the Consumption Indicator are set to improve considerably in the coming months, for example, the consumer sentiment index and business activity in the retail sector.

Calculation of the UBS Consumption Indicator:

The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead of about three months of the official figures. At 57%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from five consumer-related parameters: new car sales, the business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index, all of these data are available monthly.

Contact:

Hanspeter Hausheer, Economic Research
Tel. +41 44 234 67 32

Carla Duss, Economic Research
Tel. +41 44 234 21 19

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/wmr-swiss-research