Harvest currency volatility

We believe higher currency volatility offers scope for investors to boost portfolio income.

24 Jan 2025

Higher volatility in currency markets provides the opportunity to boost portfolio income and earn additional yields in exchange for agreeing to make currency conversions at specific prices. Over the next 1-3 months, we like picking up yield by selling the upside in EURUSD and downside in USDCHF. Over the next six months, we like selling upside in CHFJPY, EURGBP, and EURAUD, and downside in GBPUSD, GBPCHF, and AUDUSD. While the US dollar may remain well bid in the near term, we expect modest weakness over the balance of 2025. Meanwhile, we believe yen and pound weakness may be approaching their limits.

Sell EURUSD upside and USDCHF downside, for the next three months

Weakening growth momentum in the Eurozone has reinforced expectations for significant rate cuts from the ECB this year. . We expect 100bps of rate cuts from the ECB, frontloaded into 1H 2025. The benefits from this policy stimulus will, however, take some time to become evident, thereby leaving the EURUSD skewed to the downside in the short term. We thus favor selling upside risks to the EURUSD in the short term.

In Switzerland, weakening growth momentum has also seen the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lead the way on rate cuts. Swiss economic data continues to be relatively soft and should continue to underpin dovish expectations on the SNB, at least for the near term. We thus favor selling USDCHF downside risk in the short term.

Sell upside in EURGBP and EURAUD

We think that policy action in the early days of the Trump administration will likely target the Eurozone more than the UK. Crucially, the UK runs a trade deficit with the US, including a small deficit in the goods balance, which is the focus of "regular tariffs”. This leaves the Eurozone's exports, heavy on autos and machinery, more exposed than those of the UK. We thus like selling the upside above 0.8570 over the initial phases of the likely tariff impact.

A similar situation applies to the EURAUD, where we like to sell the upside in the pair. In 2025, we expect Australia GDP growth to be the strongest outside of the US in the G10. As such, we expect the RBA to cut less than the European Central Bank (ECB). We expect the RBA to only begin cutting rates in 2Q, versus further cuts by the ECB in 1Q. Moreover, the RBA is expected to cut by 75bps this year compared to 100bps for the ECB. The combination of the relative tariff risks, growth dynamics and the trajectory of interest rate differentials makes selling downside risks in the EURAUD for yield pick-up an attractive proposition.

Sell downside in AUDUSD

The recovery in the AUDUSD pair remains a high conviction call, with additional stimulus from China, more modest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) than currently priced, and a forecast recovery in industrial metals prices by year end. Furthermore, the nation runs a net trade deficit with the US of around 1.9% of GDP, and has deepened security ties via the AUKUS agreement, which Trump has reportedly said that he supports. As such, at current levels, we believe the selloff is overextended as evidenced by speculator short positioning, so we like to sell the downside in the pair at or below 0.60.

Sell upside in CHFJPY

The divergence in the respective 2025 monetary policy outlooks and the JPY’s cheap valuation versus the CHF present an attractive opportunity to sell the upside potential in the pair. The SNB has not ruled out negative interest rates amid sustained disinflation in Switzerland. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set for more hikes this year. We like selling upside in CHFJPY above 176.50 for yield pickup over the near term.

Sell downside in GBPUSD and GBPCHF

While some GBP weakness is possible in the near term, we think fading USD dominance over the course of 2025 will drive up GBPUSD to 1.25 by 3Q. In the absence of a global bond selloff and a spike in risk aversion (which would support the USD), the near-term USD strength should prove transitory. Ultra-low policy rates in Switzerland call for a general underperformance of the CHF. We think this should limit pullbacks in GBPCHF and allow the pairing to trend higher in the latter part of the year as activity in Europe improves. These factors favor selling volatility, i.e., selling the downside risks for a yield pickup.

More investment ideas

Lock in yields

24 Jan 2025

We believe that high grade and investment grade bonds offer compelling risk-reward, and we expect mid-to-high single digit returns for medium duration bonds in US dollar terms over the next 12 months. We also believe investors should pursue means of diversifying and boosting portfolio income, including through diversified fixed income strategies, senior loans and private credit, and through equity income strategies. In relative value, we like UK gilts relative to French OATs.

More to go in stocks

24 Jan 2025

We expect the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by the end of 2025, 10% higher than current levels. The potential imposition of tariffs could lead to volatility in the short term, but we believe that strong US economic growth and structural tailwinds from AI should be supportive. We also see value in maintaining diversified exposure to Asia ex-Japan. In Europe, we like EMU small- and mid-cap stocks and Swiss high-quality dividend stocks.

Transformational innovation opportunities

24 Jan 2025

We expect significant and sustained profit growth in the transformational innovation opportunities of (1) Artificial intelligence and (2) Power and resources. By investing in these areas, we believe investors can earn strong long-term returns.

Moving light streaks in front of New York City skyline

Go for gold

24 Jan 2025

We expect gold to resume its rally in 2025. We expect the trend of central bank reserve asset diversification to continue, while geopolitical risks, government debt concerns, and inflation uncertainty are contributing to robust investor demand. We expect prices to rise to USD 2,850/oz by the end of the year. We also expect upside for silver prices in 2025.

Time for real estate

24 Jan 2025

We believe the outlook for global residential and commercial real estate investments is bright. With constrained supply and rising demand, we see opportunities in sectors such as logistics, data centers, and multifamily housing. Investors should focus on quality assets and strategic diversification to capitalize on these favorable market dynamics.

Explore more of the Year Ahead 2025 report

In our base case, we expect sustained economic growth in the US, supported by healthy consumption, loose fiscal policy, and lower interest rates. Tariff threats are a headwind for Asia and Europe. If imposed, they could be partially offset by reactive stimulus measures in China. We expect growth in Europe to modestly improve as interest rates fall

A Trump presidency, coupled with Republican control of Congress, has the potential to reshape the global economic and geopolitical landscape. Key policy areas in focus for investors include tariffs, fiscal policy, deregulation, monetary policy, and international relations.

Read more about the Year Ahead

The 5Ds—debt, deglobalization, demographics, decarbonization, and digitalization—will be significant forces in the decade ahead that present opportunities and risks for investors. In aggregate, we expect them to lead to higher growth and periods of higher inflation over the long term.

Since the beginning of the decade, cash returns have struggled to surpass inflation and bonds have faced headwinds from rising interest rates. In contrast, equities have thrived, and private markets and commodities have offered robust returns. Looking ahead, we expect equities and private markets to continue to offer the highest potential returns.

Read more about the Decade Ahead

Entering 2025, we believe stocks still have more to go, with our base case expectations of growth (despite tariffs), lower interest rates, and AI advancements. In fixed income, we think there is an opportunity to lock in yields for quality bonds. In currencies, while the dollar may remain strong in the short term, we believe it is looking stretched and advocate for selling it at further strength. We also like gold as a diversifier. Finally, we think the global real estate outlook looks promising.

Taking a step back, while these investment ideas present compelling cases for immediate action, developing a strategic plan that links goals with strategies can improve investors’ chance of success and help them stay focused on the bigger picture amid potential market turbulence.

Explore all our Top investment ideas

We aim to provide the direction of travel for the economy and asset classes against a wide range of market outcomes ahead. The upside scenario would see lower taxes, deregulation, and trade deals adding to a positive market narrative built on solid growth and continued investment in artificial intelligence, while the risk scenario is that trade tariffs, excessive fiscal deficits, and geopolitical strife will contribute to higher inflation, weaker growth, and market volatility.

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In this Year Ahead, we look at key developments that we believe will shape the next stage of these “Roaring 20s,” including US political change, falling interest rates, and transformational innovation in artificial intelligence and in power and resources.

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Disclaimers

Year Ahead 2025 – UBS House View
Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment Research

This report has been prepared by UBS AG, UBS AG London Branch, UBS Switzerland AG, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS), UBS AG Singapore Branch, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch, and UBS SuMi TRUST Wealth Management Co., Ltd.

Global asset class preferences definitions

The asset class preferences provide high-level guidance to make investment decisions. The preferences reflect the collective judgement of the members of the House View meeting, primarily based on assessments of expected total returns on liquid, commonly known indexes, House View scenarios, and analyst convictions over the next 12 months. Note that the tactical asset allocation (TAA) positioning of our different investment strategies may differ from these views due to factors including portfolio construction, concentration, and borrowing constraints.

Attractive: We consider this asset class to be attractive. Consider opportunities in this asset class.
Neutral: We do not expect outsized returns or losses. Hold longer-term exposure.
Unattractive: We consider this asset class to be unattractive. Consider alternative opportunities.

Note: For equities, we have collapsed “Most Attractive” with “Attractive” and “Least Attractive” with “Unattractive” from the five-tier rating system that is found in the Equity Compass into 3 tiers.

Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements

This report contains statements that constitute “forward-looking statements,” including but not limited to statements relating to the current and expected state of the securities market and capital market assumptions. While these forward-looking statements represent our judgments and future expectations concerning the matters discussed in this document, a number of risks, uncertainties, changes in the market, and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from our expectations. These factors include, but are not limited to (1) the extent and nature of future developments in the US market and in other market segments; (2) other market and macroeconomic developments, including movements in local and international securities markets, credit spreads, currency exchange rates and interest rates, whether or not arising directly or indirectly from the current market crisis; (3) the impact of these developments on other markets and asset classes. UBS is not under any obligation to (and expressly disclaims any such obligation to) update or alter its forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Emerging Market Investments

Investors should be aware that Emerging Market assets are subject to, among others, potential risks linked to currency volatility, abrupt changes in the cost of capital and the economic growth outlook, as well as regulatory and sociopolitical risk, interest rate risk and higher credit risk. Assets can sometimes be very illiquid and liquidity conditions can abruptly worsen. CIO GWM generally recommends only those securities it believes have been registered under Federal US registration rules (Section 12 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) and individual State registration rules (commonly known as “Blue Sky” laws). Prospective investors should be aware that to the extent permitted under US law, CIO GWM may from time to time recommend bonds that are not registered under US or State securities laws. These bonds may be issued in jurisdictions where the level of required disclosures to be made by issuers is not as frequent or complete as that required by US laws.

Investors interested in holding bonds for a longer period are advised to select the bonds of those sovereigns with the highest credit ratings (in the investment-grade band). Such an approach should decrease the risk that an investor could end up holding bonds on which the sovereign has defaulted. Subinvestment-grade bonds are recommended only for clients with a higher risk tolerance and who seek to hold higher-yielding bonds for shorter periods only.

Nontraditional Assets

Nontraditional asset classes are alternative investments that include hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and managed futures (collectively, alternative investments). Interests of alternative investment funds are sold only to qualified investors, and only by means of offering documents that include information about the risks, performance and expenses of alternative investment funds, and which clients are urged to read carefully before subscribing and retain. An investment in an alternative investment fund is speculative and involves significant risks. Specifically, these investments (1) are not mutual funds and are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; (2) may have performance that is volatile, and investors may lose all or a substantial amount of their investment; (3) may engage in leverage and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss; (4) are long-term, illiquid investments; there is generally no secondary market for the interests of a fund, and none is expected to develop; (5) interests of alternative investment funds typically will be illiquid and subject to restrictions on transfer; (6) may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors; (7) generally involve complex tax strategies and there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors; (8) are subject to high fees, including management fees and other fees and expenses, all of which will reduce profits.

Interests in alternative investment funds are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed or endorsed by, any bank or other insured depository institution, and are not federally insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve Board, or any other governmental agency. Prospective investors should understand these risks and have the financial ability and willingness to accept them for an extended period of time before making an investment in an alternative investment fund, and should consider an alternative investment fund as a supplement to an overall investment program.

In addition to the risks that apply to alternative investments generally, the following are additional risks related to an investment in these strategies:

Hedge Fund Risk: There are risks specifically associated with investing in hedge funds, which may include risks associated with investing in short sales, options, small-cap stocks, “junk bonds,” derivatives, distressed securities, non-US securities and illiquid investments.
Managed Futures: There are risks specifically associated with investing in managed futures programs. For example, not all managers focus on all strategies at all times, and managed futures strategies may have material directional elements.
Real Estate: There are risks specifically associated with investing in real estate products and real estate investment trusts. They involve risks associated with debt, adverse changes in general economic or local market conditions, changes in governmental, tax, real estate and zoning laws or regulations, risks associated with capital calls and, for some real estate products, the risks associated with the ability to qualify for favorable treatment under the federal tax laws.
Private Equity: There are risks specifically associated with investing in private equity. Capital calls can be made on short notice, and the failure to meet capital calls can result in significant adverse consequences including, but not limited to, a total loss of investment.
Foreign Exchange/Currency Risk: Investors in securities of issuers located outside of the United States should be aware that even for securities denominated in US dollars, changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the issuer’s “home” currency can have unexpected effects on the market value and liquidity of those securities. Those securities may also be affected by other risks (such as political, economic or regulatory changes) that may not be readily known to a US investor.

CIO research disclaimer

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