Sort of stagflation?

Daily update

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, as expected. Forecasts cut economic growth projections for the next three years, to a rate well below that of the each of the last four years. Inflation forecasts were pushed up. The media will rush to declare “stagflation”—but this is hardly the 1970s. Tariffs will raise inflation and then lower growth, so the pattern is not unexpected, and of course there is considerable uncertainty given erratic government policy.
US President Trump declared the Fed should be cutting rates in response to trade taxes. (There is a supportive argument—if policy focuses on the growth destruction of tax hikes rather than the price increases). The Fed is slowing the reduction of its balance sheet. This reflects the fact that liquidity demand is not slowing so aggressively, and should necessarily be seen as an easing.
UK labor market data comes with an official health warning as to quality. The January figures were broadly stable, signaling real incomes are still rising (along with employment).
Assorted ECB speakers are scheduled, including ECB President Lagarde (who will attract market attention). The US Philly Fed business sentiment poll is due—subject to a great deal of political polarization, but likely to be exploited for partisan reasons.