CIO continues to advise investors with a high risk-tolerance to sell Brent’s downside price risks or to add exposure to longer-dated Brent oil contracts. (UBS)

At the same time, India’s oil demand (the third global largest consumer), rose by 8.2% y/y in January. The IEA estimates that visible crude and refined products fell by 60 million barrels in January, which would correspond to a deficit of nearly 2mbpd.


Preliminary data for the month of February (until 18 February) indicates that OPEC's compliance with the production cuts has further increased. The January laggard, Iraq, has reduced its crude exports further, which are now down more than 300kbpd versus December, according to Petro-Logistics. Total OPEC crude exports are at around 18.7mbpd, which are down around 900kbpd versus December and the lowest level since August. If exports are maintained at current levels, we expect oil markets to stay tight.


We retain a modestly positive outlook as we expect the oil market to remain slightly undersupplied this year. Hence, we continue to advise investors with a high risk-tolerance to sell Brent’s downside price risks or to add exposure to longer-dated Brent oil contracts.


Main contributor - Giovanni Staunovo


Original report - Crude oil: OPEC crude oil exports at a six-month low, 22 February 2024.