Financial Education

US Elections What's at stake in 2020?

John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy, discusses what's at stake in the 2020 election, the Democratic more nominees, and which states to watch closely.

  • UBS House View Weekly Markets may hinge on 6 factors in trade dispute

    Right now, tensions between the US and its major trading partners continue to drive stock market volatility. We believe that a shared desire to avoid slower growth will push the US and China toward an eventual compromise. However, we also continue to assess the need for further downside protection, and believe market moves from here will hinge on six factors. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 20 May 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Bracing for bumps in US–China trade talks

    US President Donald Trump adopted a strident tone on trade talks with China over the weekend, saying that any deal could not be 50-50 between the two countries. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 20 May 2019
  • Global Risk Radar All the President's threats

    We have revised our investment scenarios as the US-China trade dispute has intensified. We still see a risk (30%) that negotiations will break down and the US raises tariffs on the balance of its imports from China. We see little chance (20%) of a breakthrough at the G20 summit at the end of June. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 17 May 2019
  • Sustainable investing Miami confronts climate change

    Miami Beach is among a growing list of US municipal bond issuers citing climate change as an investment risk. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 17 May 2019
  • ElectionWatch 2020 Election: 7 issues to watch

    It’s easy to get distracted by political rhetoric and by issues that are politically important but have limited impact on markets and investors’ financial plans. The Chief Investment Office breaks the top issues into seven broad categories that will likely be relevant through, and beyond, election night. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 May 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Expect volatility as the US uses carrot and stick

    News on Wednesday that President Donald Trump appears set to delay the imposition of tariffs on auto imports helped equity markets shrug off earlier losses on weaker US and China macro data. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 May 2019
  • ElectionWatch Do incumbents have the advantage in elections?

    In the 32 elections where incumbent presidents ran as a candidate, 22 resulted in re-election—a 69% win rate. Since 1948, there have been 11 presidential elections with incumbent candidates; an incumbent was re-elected in 8 of these elections (72% win rate). more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 May 2019
  • Intellectual Capital Blog Fixed income: US rates stay within the range

    With volatility increasing alongside US-China trade tensions, the 10-year US Treasury yield has managed to remain within our forecast range of 2.3–2.8% during 2019. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 May 2019
  • Commodities Gold: A hedge with benefits

    The gold price has been on a roller-coaster this year. After rising from USD 1,280/oz at the start of the year to nearly USD 1,350/oz in February thanks to the Federal Reserve's dovish shift, gold prices fell to a four-month low of USD 1,270/oz in April. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 May 2019
  • Artificial Intelligence Rise of the machines

    It's not exactly Skynet and cyborg assassins taking over the world, like in The Terminator, but Amazon has taken a step closer towards one of mankind's greatest fears - giving our jobs to robots and machines. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 May 2019
  • Equities CIO maintains a constructive outlook on US stocks

    Amid headlines of an escalation in trade tensions, and an uptick in volatility that has seen the S&P 500 drop as much as 5% from its all-time high, CIO reiterates its constructive view on the US equity market. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 May 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Stimulus expectations underpin Chinese equities

    Chinese activity data for April released on 15 May was weaker than expected and softer than in March. Retail sales growth decreased from 8.7% y/y in March to 5.4%, a 16-year low. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 May 2019
  • Equities The pricing on the cake

    Equity markets continued to slide yesterday as escalating trade tensions between the US and China reignited fears of a global growth slowdown. The tit-for-tat tariff spat between the US and China is not the only concern on investors' minds. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 May 2019
  • UBS House View Weekly Mike Ryan's take on Investment Sentiment Survey

    The findings of the UBS Investor Sentiment survey certainly served to validate our views about the current economic outlook. According to the high net worth investors and business owners surveyed, confidence in the current economic expansion remains solid. About two-thirds of businesses and 56% of high net worth investors were confident about growth prospects over the next 12 months. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 May 2019
  • Municipal Market Guide Why are munis attracting so much cash?

    Investor demand for municipal bonds has been nothing short of extraordinary in 2019. As a point of reference, tax-exempt mutual funds have been on the receiving end of net cash inflows for 17 consecutive weeks. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 May 2019
  • Modern retirement monthly Retirement: Destination or transition?

    The definition of retirement alludes to the idea that after a retirement date, employment ends entirely. But an increasing number of Americans are reshaping the retirement picture by incorporating some form of work into their transition. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 May 2019
  • Markets Trade brinkmanship drives down markets

    After a weekend of confrontational trade rhetoric, China retaliated to last week’s US tariff increase, and markets fell sharply. From Friday's close through the end of trading on Monday, the S&P 500 was down 2.4% and the MSCI China Index fell about 3.8%. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 May 2019