Daily update
Daily update
- China’s May trade data had a fairly large drop in exports, attributed to weakness in exports to the US and Japan. This does not necessarily signal a sharp decline in global demand. Global demand patterns now favor services rather than goods (China is not a service exporter). Moreover, there was surprising strength in China’s first quarter export numbers, helping to boost the GDP numbers. Potentially the strength reported in the first quarter was at the expense of reported export data later on.
- US April trade data offers some insights from the other side of the equation. The US is still a fairly important manufacturer, so its export data might offer some insight into trade flows. Ultimately, however, the US is the world’s key consumer, so it is the import numbers that will attract market attention.
- German April industrial production data is due—something of a focus with the German economy reportedly having had negative growth. The forecast range for this data is, as ever, very wide so care is needed in comparing the numbers to “expectations.”
- The OECD publishes its Economic Outlook. It will not excite markets. The OECD Economic Outlook is an interesting historical artifact, generally recording what markets were forecasting three or four months ago.
