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Daily update

  • German and Spanish preliminary September consumer price inflation is due. Energy prices are a focus of course, but transitory durable goods price inflation should continue to exert disinflation pressure. Controlling profit-led inflation pressures were an early focus in Spain, and will naturally be a fading disinflation force. They are still an issue in Germany.
  • US final second-quarter GDP is due. This is not final—it will be revised for decades to come—but the expectation is for relative stability. This expectation is perhaps less certain; data has become progressively less reliable. Recently, there was a sizeable upward revision of UK GDP data, which changed the economic narrative.
  • A sizable bipartisan majority in the US senate passed a measure to make things politically difficult for House Speaker McCarthy. Coincidentally, the measure extends the deadline for the government shutdown. To show they are serious, the senate also passed a resolution forcing senators to wear big boy trousers (shorts are banned). While any sartorial improvement is to be welcomed in a country whose contribution to fashion is the backwards baseball cap, perhaps now is not the time to be focused on dress codes.
  • US initial jobless claims will likely provoke a flicker of market interest. European confidence data can be ignored.

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