House View live with Mike Ryan
Economic data has worsened since last month’s letter. But although we have been surprised at the rate of the slowdown in recent months, markets have adjusted quickly, and the strong performance of the US labor market as well as widespread stimulus in China keep us confident that growth, while slowing, is not stopping.
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Over the past two months US and global growth decelerated sharply, manufacturing sentiment surveys have dropped notably, and global trade and export data fell. Meanwhile, financial conditions have also tightened. Yet the outlook for the economy is far from bleak. A strong labor market is helping consumer spending, business activity is still above average, and inflation looks contained. So how long can this business cycle actually last? All told, there’s good reason to think the late stage could be elongated.
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