Goldilocks and the four bears

UBS Global Risk Radar April 2019

11 Apr 2019

This series helps investors identify and assess global financial market risks and their investment implications

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At a glance.

  • CIO believes the most relevant risks for global markets over a six- to 12-month horizon are trade negotiations, the US business cycle, US credit markets, and the Chinese economy. In the base case, we see moderate growth, subdued inflation, and benign central bank policy for the time being.
  • We have recently seen signs of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China. In the meantime, downside risks to US growth now seem more prominent than upside risks to US inflation and policy interest rates.
  • We propose a framework that our readers can use to assess the importance of different risk scenarios to their investment portfolios over a tactical investment horizon of six to 12 months.
  • CIO maintains a slight preference for risk assets overall, but also holds hedges against downside risk.

Download the full edition of the Global risk radar.

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