Trade details

Posted by: Paul Donovan

18 Mar 2019
  • Trade is something of a focus for investors today. The central expectation of a US-China trade deal being done is not changing. Investors believe that US President Trump will reverse the existing trade taxes on US consumers of goods partially made in China. Within that big picture, there are nuances that matter to markets, however.
  • Japanese trade showed the typical noise around the lunar new year holidays, but exports to non-China Asia were weaker. The hope is that a US-China trade deal will reverse this weakness. Japanese industrial production was revised higher however.
  • Eurozone trade is due today. Chinese President Xi will be travelling to France, Italy and Monaco on a trade-focused trip later this week. Paris may not be looking its best following more protests over the weekend. The protests have negative economic costs (the economic positive was the fiscal stimulus response, the negative the impact on consumption and tourism).
  • The interminably tedious process of splitting the EU and the UK continues. The UK government may not hold a meaningful vote on Tuesday, if they do not believe it can be won. Instead, the government is suggesting a long delay, with UK participation in European elections.