Interesting interest rates. Uninteresting Brexit

Posted by: Paul Donovan

20 Mar 2019
  • We have the excitement of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision today. The lawyer who chairs the Fed will be giving a press conference, which allows for nuance and direction. Conditions are not right for a rate rise today, but they probably will be later this year.
  • German producer price inflation, which indicates corporate pricing power, was relatively stable. This does not tell us that much. However, if companies are still able to raise prices, it does suggest that the weakness in German industry is more supply side than demand side. Various UK price indices are due but will not be a focus.
  • US President Trump declared that trade negotiations with China were going well, in remarks shouted to the media yesterday. Media reports suggest Chinese officials are less optimistic, feeling that the US is not conceding enough.
  • UK PM May is apparently rediscovering the lost art of letter writing, and drafting a formal request to the EU make the interminably tedious EU-UK divorce just a little bit more interminable. There really is nothing intelligent to say on the subject at the moment, and the best approach is probably to ignore it.