Economists are condemned to talk trade and Brexit forever

Posted by: Paul Donovan

15 Mar 2019
  • US President Trump said US-China trade talks are going "really well". A decision can be expected in the next few weeks. Trump and Chinese President Xi will not meet this month. Markets have priced in a deal and are unlikely to react. North Korean President Kim is to make a statement on resuming nuclear testing – overall markets tend not to react to this sort of thing too much.
  • The EU-UK divorce continues. Of course it does. Parliament voted to delay exit (the EU's agreement is needed, unless the UK withdraws then resubmits Article 50). A second referendum was defeated by a large majority, with the opposition Labour Party abstaining.
  • Eurozone CPI is due. This is not likely to be a focus – with a broadly stable set of data expected. Car registration numbers might be worth a glance, as January's German industrial weakness was focused on the auto sector.
  • US industrial and manufacturing production is due. The US was not the driver of last year's manufacturing weakness, but the uncertainties of trade taxes make this a number to look at. Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li was reiterating "employment first" and stimulus for all in remarks at the end of the National People's Congress.