Separating the cycle signal from the noise

Market cycle dynamics are one of the most important drivers of medium-term performance. The current bull market is in its tenth year, and investors are rightfully beginning to focus increasingly on whether we're coming to the end of the late-cycle environment that precedes a recession and bear market.

The primary cyclical concern currently revolves around a rise in inflation and its implications for monetary policy. For now, we believe that inflation improvements are a positive development that supports the Federal Reserve's gradual and pragmatic approach to normalizing monetary policy. And looking past this noise there are strong signs that economic fundamentals are still solid and we remain in mid-cycle.

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Date: May 3, 2018

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Mike Ryan, CFA

Chief Investment Officer Americas,
Global Wealth Management

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