Light at the end of the tunnel
The bottom-line is that we think the economy will stay sluggish next year, but the worst of the economic malaise is likely over. Singapore's economy just missed a technical recession, squeezing out 0.1% y/y growth in the third quarter. The global slowdown in trade and manufacturing has been battering the region, and smaller open economies like Singapore's have been bearing the brunt of the pain. The city state's manufacturing sector continued to contract in the third quarter (–3.5% y/y, vs. – 3.3% in 2Q), and industrial production worsened (–4% y/y in July and August, vs. –3.3% y/y in 2Q).
Takeaways from 2019 IMF-World Bank fall meetings
The overwhelming consensus among meeting participants is that low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates are here to stay. The IMF-World Bank fall meetings took place in Washington DC, this past weekend. Our team attended a number of seminars with policymakers, academics, and investors from around the world.
"We don’t consider a global recession, something that would definitely dent the UK economy, likely, but growth is bound to be subpar for a while yet." One of the remarkable successes of the UK economy in recent years has been the performance of the labour market. Since the post-crisis peak of 8.5% back in 2011, the unemployment rate has fallen steadily to a level not seen for more than four decades.
Seasons change (a little)
Stock markets have remained resilient in these early stages of earnings season, perhaps because the outlook does not appear to be as weak as feared. Here in New York, autumn is making its debut. Shades of yellow and orange are just starting to mix in with the green, apple picking is on the weekend calendar (especially those looking for activities for the kids!), and warmer jackets have been roused from their hibernations. Summer seems like a distant memory.