The return of political markets

UBS Global Risk Radar October 2019

04 Oct 2019

This series helps investors identify and assess global financial market risks and their investment implications

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At a glance.

  • Financial markets are increasingly influenced by political news. With a looming trade conflict, the middle east conflict back on the agenda, a US election and an impeachment process ahead of us, this is unlikely to change in 2020. We recommend investors take a step-by-step approach to digesting political news rather than expressing political views with an outright investment position.
  • The most likely trigger to end the current economic cycle remains a worsening of the trade conflict, which has increased downside risk not just to the US economy, but also to the Eurozone and China.
  • Overall, we are underweight equities, prefer US stocks to their Eurozone counterparts, and favor income-generating strategies in the current environment.

Download the full edition of the Global risk radar.

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