This series helps investors identify and assess global financial market risks and their investment implications
At a glance.
- Tensions between US and China have recently escalated once more following President Trump's decision to increase tariffs on US imports from China.
- In our base case, we expect the latest round of tariffs to be implemented and estimate that this will take around 0.3ppt off US growth over the next 12 months. In our downside scenario, we see the risk of a US recession rising significantly as a result of additional US sanctions such as higher tariffs on sensitive goods from China or the imposition of duties on car imports.
- While we still believe that a US recession is not imminent, risks are clearly tilted to the downside. We have recently trimmed our equity exposure, leaving us underweight to stocks overall. Instead, with rates likely to stay lower for longer, we look for income-enhancing opportunities.
CIO daily updates
- Rate cuts further erode the appeal of cash
- All eyes on the Fed
- FX opportunities remain despite spotlight on stocks and bonds
- Saudi oil facilities attacked
- ECB easing unlikely to be sufficient
- Goodwill is not the same thing as real progress
- Stick with quality stocks
- Commodities: Disruption and opportunity
- Lower demand growth set to weigh on crude
- Slower growth needn’t signal a recession