Minute by minute

Posted by: Paul Donovan

21 Feb 2019
  • The US Federal Reserve minutes were as expected. There was much discussion about adjusting quantitative policy, which is interesting in an economic-geek way. The Fed believes the US consumer to be happily spending money (the Fed met before the very dubious quality retail sales report was published). The minutes are consistent with a range of policy outcomes this year.
  • US capital goods orders data is due today. This does matter. Slower global capital spending was a big reason for slower trade at the end of last year. Stabilization of capital spending will be an important signal of stable trade and stable economic growth.
  • The Eurozone has inflation data. German producer prices hinted at a degree of pricing power by coming in higher than expected yesterday (but it is very marginal at this stage). For the most part, profit margins rather than prices are likely to be hit by higher cost pressures.
  • UK PM May is in Brussels. There is nothing interesting to say about this. One of the credit rating agencies (it does not matter which) has put the UK on negative credit watch, threatening to change the rating from something (it does not matter what) to something else.