Up, up and away (except Japan’s CPI)

Posted by: Paul Donovan

30 Apr 2021

Daily update

  • Yesterday’s first quarter US GDP release was basically in line with expectations—which might be considered disappointing as we are so used to growth related data beating expectations. However, the number was strong, even allowing for the lunacy of annualizing data in so distorted a time.
  • France has revealed its first quarter data, and has fallen back into the comfortable global growth pattern of beating expectations and revising earlier numbers higher. Germany is next—and it is hard to think of a German number that has not beaten expectations and been revised higher. European restrictions mean that the economic bounce-back lags that of the Anglo-Saxon world, but the data does show Europeans are willing to spend.
  • The world champions of spending (US consumers) will be documented with personal income and spending data for March. US consumers were experiencing easing restrictions, had received January stimulus cheques, and knew the March stimulus cheques would be arriving soon. US consumers were probably in a good mood.
  • Japanese consumer price inflation weakened in April. Most economies have accelerating inflation because of what happened in the oil market a year ago. Japan had lower mobile phone charges (cell phone charges, for US readers). Industrial production was strong, reiterating the strength of the global bounce-back.

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