Disinflation in focus

Posted by: Paul Donovan

14 Sep 2021

Daily update

  • Spain’s final consumer price numbers are not today’s focus, as (unusually for Eurozone data) the numbers are rarely revised. Finland saw a slowing in the monthly growth of inflation—which does seem to be the global trend. Indian inflation was lower than expected yesterday.
  • The main focus is the price of a US 2001 Toyota Corolla. This price, bundled up with some other prices, will be released in the form of July US consumer price inflation. Used car inflation peaked at over 45% y/y back in June, but is rapidly moving towards outright deflation. However, fuel and perhaps food prices will add to the headline number. Overall, US inflation should have peaked, and the question is the strength of disinflation forces in the coming months.
  • UK labor market data was strong, with positive revisions to past data (of course). The UK labor market cannot be used as a model for global labor, however. Migration patterns mean that the UK lost a lot of workers in the pandemic. The UK’s bias to online retail pre-pandemic means that there is less likely to be near-term disruption as consumers go virtual.
  • Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking. In the US, polls suggest California’s Governor Newsom will not be recalled.

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