Unemployment report Friday

Posted by: Paul Donovan

08 May 2020

Daily update

  • The IMF has declared that the global economic outlook has worsened in the past four weeks. The IMF is not known for the timeliness of its economic forecasts. Markets have probably been pricing in this view for the past eight weeks.
  • The US employment report is survey-based evidence, and therefore less reliable than the initial jobless claims numbers. We know that the unemployment rate is over 20%—but that is similar to the furloughed workers of Europe. (The numbers are not exactly the same—a European can be furloughed more than once, an American is only supposed to make one jobless claim).
  • After a week of strong language around US-China relations, China has reported on a high level telephone call over trade. There was much cheerleading over the progress of trade talks, which is likely to reassure investors. It will not stop further rhetoric in the US, as this is all part of the presidential election campaign.
  • Industrial and manufacturing production data come from various parts of Europe today, but are likely to be overlooked. Taiwan's trade numbers may attract attention, in the wake of stronger Chinese data.

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