- The US Trade Representative is investigating several countries' possible taxes on technology companies. This is unlikely to stop these taxes taking place – the UK is already collecting tax revenue under its tech tax. With rising borrowing, governments have a politically easy target in technology companies with global operations and limited tax payments – regardless of where they happen to be headquartered.
- It is not just the size of fiscal stimulus that matters. Getting fiscal spending through to consumers and companies is important. Media reports suggest that a third of US initial jobless claims payments have not been paid. This may delay the economic bounce back, as it is savings acquired during lockdown that will fuel a consumer boost. Globally most savings have been accumulated by higher income consumers.
- Various service sector business sentiment opinion polls are due. If everyone was the tiniest fraction more positive in May than they were in April, these polls should read 100. They will not, because people do not fill them in properly. Which raises the question, if an index does not do what it says it does, should we still look at it?
- US ADP payrolls are due. Markets are focused on labor data, but this is not normally considered very reliable.